Colorado Senate: Mark Udall Still Favored

Stuart Rothenberg April 22, 2014 · 12:34 PM EDT

Rarely has so much been made of so little.

I ought to know, since I am in the middle of the to-do.

During the past weekend’s edition of CNN’s State of the Union, I happened to suggest that Republican Rep. Cory Gardner might upset incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in the Colorado Senate race.

My comment came at the very end of a segment, a response to host Candy Crowley’s question about a possible upsets in November.

I wasn’t prepared for the question, but that shouldn’t matter. I’ve responded to dozens of similar questions in the past, and my usual response is to defer, pointing out that I prefer not to guess about races six or nine months away.

But the segment had been unruly – the Republican National Committee’s Sean Spicer and the Democratic National Committee’s Mo Elleithee had spent most of their time yelling at each other – and I decided, in a fraction of a second, to answer Candy’s question. That was not a wise decision on my part.

My response was not a measured, thoughtful answer. It’s TV, after all, where dead air is the only thing worse than off-the-cuff, ill-considered remarks.

In a matter of seconds, I decided against answering New Hampshire, Iowa and Georgia. I picked Colorado because of the state’s competitiveness, Gardner’s candidate quality and…

Sebelius to the Senate? Maybe in the Land of Oz, But Not in Kansas

Stuart Rothenberg April 18, 2014 · 11:23 AM EDT

When I read the New York Times piece, “Sebelius Said to Weigh Run for Kansas Senate Seat,” I had two very different reactions.

First, I figured that national Democrats had to be encouraged that former Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, a once-popular two-term governor of…

How to Handicap a Campaign’s Ground Game in 2014

Stuart Rothenberg April 17, 2014 · 9:40 AM EDT

This cycle, Democrats are counting heavily on registering new voters and turning out registered voters who otherwise don’t bother to vote during midterm elections. Republicans are also putting more emphasis on voter contact programs.

In an era of micro-targeting and sophisticated…

Democratic Senate Prospects and the New Black Voter

Nathan L. Gonzales April 14, 2014 · 12:54 PM EDT

Democrats plan to turn out thousands of African-American voters this fall, in an effort to hold the Senate majority. The challenge is that some of them aren’t yet registered to vote.

Which begs the question, after opportunities to elect and re-elect the first black president, why would an…

Republicans to Maintain, and Potentially Grow, House Majority

Stuart Rothenberg April 11, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

So far, there is precious little evidence that Democrats have changed the trajectory of the 2014 midterm elections, reinforcing our earlier assessment that Democrats have little or no chance of taking back the House in November.

President Barack Obama’s weak job approval numbers, questions…