House News & Analysis

The Amazingly Static House Playing Field

Nathan L. Gonzales September 19, 2014 · 9:37 AM EDT

After a year of campaigning, television ads, a government shutdown, and a botched rollout of HealthCare.gov, the House playing field is virtually unchanged from where it was 12 months ago.

We recently updated the Rothenberg Political Report ratings in seven House districts. Arizona’s 1st District, Maine’s 2nd District,…

The Republican Brand’s Recovery Tour — Sort Of

Stuart Rothenberg September 17, 2014 · 11:19 AM EDT

There was a time, a little less than a year ago, when Democrats salivated at the thought of running against the GOP brand and demonizing Republican candidates by attacking them and their party for “shutting down the government.”

But the Republican brand has largely recovered from its low…

Will Women Lose Ground in the House GOP After 2014?

Nathan L. Gonzales September 16, 2014 · 12:10 PM EDT

Republicans are at virtually no risk of losing their House majority in November, but there is a little extra pressure to win a handful of key districts in order to avoid taking a step back in the number of women in the Republican conference.

Republicans have been on…

A National Election or a Localized One?

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Stuart Rothenberg September 12, 2014 · 4:30 PM EDT

Our House and Senate ratings continue to reflect state-level and district-level surveys, as well as the fundamentals of each contest. But as we all know, midterm elections sometimes become referenda on the sitting president. When that happens, if the electorate’s mood is angry and dissatisfied with the president’s performance,…

Putting House Expectations Into Context

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Nathan L. Gonzales September 12, 2014 · 4:29 PM EDT

“Republicans are on track to expand their majority by only five or six seats, or roughly half their goal,” according to a Politico piece, “Halfway House: GOP falling short in midterms,” published earlier this month.

“From a historic perspective, a five- or six-seat gain would be…

The Best Ads of 2014 – Oh Really?

Stuart Rothenberg September 11, 2014 · 1:02 PM EDT

A few weeks ago, I noticed a piece in Time headlined “The Best 6 Political Campaign Ads of the Summer (So Far).”

I’ve written columns about “the best” this or “the worst” that, so I’m certainly not opposed to columns that list personal assessments or even personal…

Republicans Use Birth Control as Campaign Wedge

Stuart Rothenberg September 9, 2014 · 9:45 AM EDT

Politics is mostly about both parties regurgitating well-established positions (on taxes, the environment, abortion and spending, for example) to appeal to base voters and demonize their opponents. But every so often, candidates from one party try a dramatically new message.

That’s what is happening now in a number…

House Candidate May Have Faulty Disclaimer in Campaign Ad

Nathan L. Gonzales September 5, 2014 · 10:51 AM EDT

Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider unveiled his first television ad Tuesday in his competitive race for re-election in Illinois’ 10th District. The 30-second spot tries to rally Democratic voters by attacking the tea party — but the ad also might have a faulty disclaimer that runs afoul of campaign…

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is…Part II

Stuart Rothenberg August 28, 2014 · 2:47 PM EDT

Three and a half months ago, I wrote about the state of the fight between the Republican establishment’s pragmatic conservative candidates and tea party/libertarian/anti-establishment conservatives.

I concluded the results were mixed and it was too early to call a winner, though I also noted, “it’s already clear…

Wave or No Wave, House Landscape Favors Republicans

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Nathan L. Gonzales August 15, 2014 · 3:03 PM EDT

While political reporters, analysts and party strategists argue over whether there is or is not a wave approaching, one thing is clear: it’s an extremely difficult landscape for Democratic candidates.

Candidates, party committees, and outside groups are polling dozens of House races as they formalize their fall ad…