House News & Analysis

How to Handicap a Campaign’s Ground Game in 2014

Stuart Rothenberg April 17, 2014 · 9:40 AM EDT

This cycle, Democrats are counting heavily on registering new voters and turning out registered voters who otherwise don’t bother to vote during midterm elections. Republicans are also putting more emphasis on voter contact programs.

In an era of micro-targeting and sophisticated get-out-the-vote operations, how can a handicapper know…

Republicans to Maintain, and Potentially Grow, House Majority

Stuart Rothenberg April 11, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

So far, there is precious little evidence that Democrats have changed the trajectory of the 2014 midterm elections, reinforcing our earlier assessment that Democrats have little or no chance of taking back the House in November.

President Barack Obama’s weak job approval numbers, questions about Democratic enthusiasm and…

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Alabama - Indiana

April 11, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

Alabama (6 Republicans, 1 Democrat). June 3 primary, July 15 runoff.
AL 6 (Open; Bachus, R). Among those running are state Sen. Scott Beason, state Rep. Paul DeMarco, businessman Will Brooke and former Alabama Policy Institute president Gary Palmer. From Beason’s website: “As Establishment Republicans in Washington are…

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Iowa - Oklahoma

April 11, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

Iowa (2R, 2D). June 3 primary. If no candidate receives 35 percent in the primary, party conventions pick the nominees.
IA 1 (Open; Braley, D). The Democratic field includes former state House Speaker Pat Murphy, Cedar Rapids City Councilor Monica Vernon, former state Sen. Swati Dandekar and state…

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Oregon - Wyoming

April 11, 2014 · 3:57 PM EDT

Oregon (1R, 4D). May 20 primary.
OR 5 (Schrader, D). Republicans hope that Clackamas County Commissioner Tootie Smith can unseat incumbent Kurt Schrader, who drew only 53 percent in 2012 against an underfunded challenger. But this is only a Republican long-shot.

Pennsylvania (13R, 5D). May 20 primary. Continue Reading

Meet 3 Divergent House Candidates Worth Watching

Stuart Rothenberg April 10, 2014 · 9:59 AM EDT

While some observers of politics apparently are only interested in statistical models that predict electoral outcomes, I have always thought that candidates matter — both during campaigns and, particularly, when the victorious arrive in Washington, D.C.

In fact I have found interviewing congressional candidates one of the most…

GOP Congressman Skips Incumbent Label on California Ballot

Nathan L. Gonzales April 9, 2014 · 10:04 AM EDT

California Republican David Valadao is running for re-election to the 21st District — but you wouldn’t know he’s the incumbent from his ballot designation.

In the Golden State, candidates can choose a short description to accompany their name on the primary and general election ballots. The ballot…

Why Republicans Have Trouble Electing Women to Congress

Nathan L. Gonzales April 7, 2014 · 9:55 AM EDT

Fewer Republican women are running for Congress in 2014, compared to last cycle. That’s a fact. But what it means — or whether it says anything at all about the GOP — is entirely a different matter.

Unfortunately, not every attempt to explain the development is even-handed and…

West Virginia 3: The Ties That Bind

Nathan L. Gonzales March 28, 2014 · 2:59 PM EDT

Democrat Nick Joe Rahall has been elected and re-elected to Congress 19 times to his southern West Virginia seat. But this November could be different, and his political future is very much in doubt.

As we wrote last May, “If Republicans get a reasonably good candidate, the national…

Ohio 6: There Goes the Neighborhood

Nathan L. Gonzales March 28, 2014 · 2:58 PM EDT

Ohio is usually at the epicenter of every election cycle. But after some shrewd Republican redistricting prior to the 2012 elections and a less-than-popular President Barack Obama, Democratic opportunities in the Buckeye State appear to be shifting from slim to none in this year’s midterm elections.

That won’t…