House News & Analysis

House Outlook: Measuring the GOP Wave

Nathan L. Gonzales October 29, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

Republicans are going to add to their majority in the House. But even though Election Day is just days away, it’s unclear how many seats the party will add.

President Barack Obama’s mediocre job approval rating has cast a shadow over the entire House landscape and has Democrats…

What Counts As a GOP Wave in 2014?

Stuart Rothenberg October 28, 2014 · 10:56 AM EDT

Most neutral observers expect Republicans to take the Senate and make at least small gains in the House, but talk about a possible GOP political wave has all but disappeared.

However, ten days to go until Election Day, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a “wave” election…

Will Obama Leave the Democratic Party Better Than He Found It?

Nathan L. Gonzales October 27, 2014 · 9:00 AM EDT

Barack Obama was elected on a swell of energy and enthusiasm, but he might leave the Democratic Party worse off than when he took office.

The disconnect between the Obama political operation and Democratic strategists focused on Congress is nothing new. Congressional Democrats have always been a bit…

Seven More House Races Creep Toward Republicans

Nathan L. Gonzales October 24, 2014 · 12:15 PM EDT

The good news for House Republicans just keeps coming as another half-dozen races shift in the GOP’s direction.

House races often get far less media attention than Senate races or gubernatorial contests, and they therefore often develop later in the cycle. With less than two weeks before the…

A Good Year May Not Save These Three Vulnerable House Republicans Either

Nathan L. Gonzales October 23, 2014 · 1:27 PM EDT

In his recent column, “Weak GOP Candidates May Need More Than a Good Year,” Stu pointed out how a handful of under-performing Senate candidates could cost Republicans the majority. Similarly, though the House of Representatives is not in play, a trio of GOP incumbents could cost their party…

Wither the National House Vote?

Nathan L. Gonzales October 17, 2014 · 3:29 PM EDT

Democrats failed to win back the House in 2012 but took pride in discrediting the Republican majority by pointing to the National House Vote. So what happens if Republicans keep the majority and get more votes nationwide?

Last cycle, Democrats gained just eight seats, falling 17 short of…

Democrats Decidedly on Defense in the House

Nathan L. Gonzales October 10, 2014 · 3:15 PM EDT

The House playing field continues to shift in favor of Republicans as President Barack Obama’s slumping job approval numbers cast a shadow over the landscape and Democrats shift their financial resources from offensive opportunities to defensive positions.

At the beginning of the cycle, David Valadao of California, Rodney…

6 Races Both Parties View Completely Differently

Nathan L. Gonzales October 10, 2014 · 10:16 AM EDT

While Democratic and Republican operatives have their own analysis on each race, they often agree on how close a race is and which candidate has the edge.

Sometimes, however, they have wildly different views on where races stand.

In California’s 52nd and Florida’s 2nd, for example, both…

Three Election Trends That Could End in 2014

Stuart Rothenberg October 7, 2014 · 10:20 AM EDT

I’m not certain how long a trend has to exist before it earns the status of an immutable political “law,” but three longtime truths are threatened this election cycle. Will all of them fall in November?

Trend #1: One party holds the Pennsylvania governorship for eight years and…

Could a Four-Second Mistake Cost a Candidate Thousands of Dollars?

Nathan L. Gonzales October 6, 2014 · 11:01 AM EDT

A disclaimer may seem like a rote few seconds in a campaign ad, but failing to follow the specific guidelines could have costly consequences for a candidate.

On Sept. 16, former Rep. Bobby Schilling, R-Ill., aired a 30-second ad titled, “How Could You?” that accused Democratic…