House News & Analysis

So You Want to Be a Political Handicapper? 2014 Edition

Stuart Rothenberg July 30, 2014 · 10:29 AM EDT

The thought of three candidate interviews over a four-hour period invariably fills me with dread.

The chance of all three congressional hopefuls being thoughtful, reasonable and personable — and having a good chance of winning in the fall — is relatively small.

But sometimes the unexpected happens.…

Chuck Schumer’s Dream: A Democratic Nightmare

Nathan L. Gonzales July 29, 2014 · 10:16 AM EDT

New York Sen. Charles E. Schumer laid out his dream for a less partisan Washington recently. But the Democrat’s New York Times op-ed is giving some strategists in his own party nightmares.

“Polarization and partisanship are a plague on American politics,” Schumer wrote in the piece —…

GOP Can’t Catch a Break in Congressional Baseball Recruitment

Nathan L. Gonzales July 22, 2014 · 10:23 AM EDT

Phil Berger Jr.’s loss in last week's Republican runoff in North Carolina’s 6th District was about more than an establishment favorite getting knocked off by an anti-establishment challenger.

He could have been a key player for Republicans in future Roll Call Congressional Baseball Games.

According to…

‘Would You Rather?’ House Race Edition

Nathan L. Gonzales July 21, 2014 · 9:40 AM EDT

In the game “Would You Rather?” one is usually faced with a choice between two difficult and undesirable options.

“If you had a machete, would you rather amputate the feet of two friends or amputate one of your own feet?” asks the site YouRather.com. Or, “Would…

Fight for the House About 2016, not 2014

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Stuart Rothenberg July 18, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

With the 2014 midterm elections less than four months away, the fight for Congress is all about the Senate. On the other hand, the battle for the House of Representatives is about positioning for 2016 rather than about which party will control the chamber next year.

National poll…

2014 House Overview (July 18, 2014) Alabama - Indiana

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July 18, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

Alabama (6 Republicans, 1 Democrat).
AL 6 (Open; Bachus, R). Former Alabama Policy Institute president Gary Palmer defeated state Rep. Paul DeMarco 64 percent to 36 percent. DeMarco finished first in the initial primary with 33 percent. Palmer will be a Member of Congress next year.

Alaska…

2014 House Overview (July 18, 2014) Iowa - Oklahoma

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July 18, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

Iowa (2R, 2D).
IA 1 (Open; Braley, D). Former state House Speaker Pat Murphy (D) faces GOP businessman Rod Blum in the fall election, but Murphy starts off with the clear advantage. Republican prospects seem less than bright.
IA 3 (Open; Latham, R). Democrats (and EMILY’s List)…

2014 House Overview (July 18, 2014) Oregon - Wyoming

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July 18, 2014 · 3:57 PM EDT

Oregon (1R, 4D).
OR 5 (Schrader, D). Kurt Schrader underperformed in 2012 against an underfunded challenger. That’s the only reason why this seat is mentioned at this point. Clackamas County Commissioner Tootie Smith (R) barely had enough money to buy a couple nice televisions, let alone pay for…

Could Upbeat Economic News Help Obama, Democrats?

Stuart Rothenberg July 10, 2014 · 9:43 AM EDT

Last week’s news that the U.S. economy gained 288,000 jobs in June seems to confirm the upbeat economic assessments coming from many of the nation’s economists and Wall Street analysts.

The question is whether the data and increased optimism one might hear on CNBC will have an effect…

New Jersey 3: So Close, Yet So Far Away

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Nathan L. Gonzales July 8, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

Democrats haven’t had a lot of success getting Members elected to Congress from New Jersey’s 3rd District in recent history. But they got a taste of it for one term and believe they can take the open seat back this year.

From Bill Cahill to Edwin Forsythe to…