House News & Analysis
April 17, 2014 · 9:40 AM EDT
This cycle, Democrats are counting heavily on registering new voters and turning out registered voters who otherwise don’t bother to vote during midterm elections. Republicans are also putting more emphasis on voter contact programs.
In an era of micro-targeting and sophisticated get-out-the-vote operations, how can a handicapper know…
April 11, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT
So far, there is precious little evidence that Democrats have changed the trajectory of the 2014 midterm elections, reinforcing our earlier assessment that Democrats have little or no chance of taking back the House in November.
President Barack Obama’s weak job approval numbers, questions about Democratic enthusiasm and…
April 11, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT
Alabama (6 Republicans, 1 Democrat). June 3 primary, July 15 runoff.
AL 6 (Open; Bachus, R). Among those running are state Sen. Scott Beason, state Rep. Paul DeMarco, businessman Will Brooke and former Alabama Policy Institute president Gary Palmer. From Beason’s website: “As Establishment Republicans in Washington are…
April 11, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT
Iowa (2R, 2D). June 3 primary. If no candidate receives 35 percent in the primary, party conventions pick the nominees.
IA 1 (Open; Braley, D). The Democratic field includes former state House Speaker Pat Murphy, Cedar Rapids City Councilor Monica Vernon, former state Sen. Swati Dandekar and state…
April 11, 2014 · 3:57 PM EDT
Oregon (1R, 4D). May 20 primary.
OR 5 (Schrader, D). Republicans hope that Clackamas County Commissioner Tootie Smith can unseat incumbent Kurt Schrader, who drew only 53 percent in 2012 against an underfunded challenger. But this is only a Republican long-shot.
Pennsylvania (13R, 5D). May 20 primary.
April 10, 2014 · 9:59 AM EDT
While some observers of politics apparently are only interested in statistical models that predict electoral outcomes, I have always thought that candidates matter — both during campaigns and, particularly, when the victorious arrive in Washington, D.C.
In fact I have found interviewing congressional candidates one of the most…
April 9, 2014 · 10:04 AM EDT
California Republican David Valadao is running for re-election to the 21st District — but you wouldn’t know he’s the incumbent from his ballot designation.
In the Golden State, candidates can choose a short description to accompany their name on the primary and general election ballots. The ballot…
April 7, 2014 · 9:55 AM EDT
Fewer Republican women are running for Congress in 2014, compared to last cycle. That’s a fact. But what it means — or whether it says anything at all about the GOP — is entirely a different matter.
Unfortunately, not every attempt to explain the development is even-handed and…
March 28, 2014 · 2:59 PM EDT
Democrat Nick Joe Rahall has been elected and re-elected to Congress 19 times to his southern West Virginia seat. But this November could be different, and his political future is very much in doubt.
As we wrote last May, “If Republicans get a reasonably good candidate, the national…
March 28, 2014 · 2:58 PM EDT
Ohio is usually at the epicenter of every election cycle. But after some shrewd Republican redistricting prior to the 2012 elections and a less-than-popular President Barack Obama, Democratic opportunities in the Buckeye State appear to be shifting from slim to none in this year’s midterm elections.