The 2014 Elections: How’d We Do?

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November 21, 2014 · 3:31 PM EDT

It seems like historic elections are the norm lately. As many Americans continue to feel uncertain about the economy and jaded about politicians, the electoral environment continues to be volatile. In this month’s midterm elections, much of the frustration was taken out on President Barack Obama through candidates and incumbents in his Democratic Party.

The fact that Republicans had a good year was not a surprise. Except for a brief moment during the government shutdown in the fall of 2013, GOP prospects ranged from bright to extremely bright. But as we digest the results, the thoroughness of the Republican rout is considerable.

So how did the Rothenberg Political Report do?

In the Senate, we projected Republican gains of 4-7 seats starting December 18, 2013. We moved our range only slightly to 4-8 seats on March 14, 2014, and we made our final change on August 29, 2014 when we upped our range to 5-8 seats. The current GOP gain stands at eight seats, but we expect Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) to lose in next month’s runoff to push the Republican advantage to nine seats.

On individual ratings, we were particularly proud of never moving the Michigan and Kentucky Senate races to anything more competitive than Lean. And we moved Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor (D) into one of our…

Louisiana Races Go Into Overtime

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Nathan L. Gonzales November 21, 2014 · 3:30 PM EDT

Not so long ago, it looked as if the entire political world would descend on Louisiana for the state’s December 6 runoff because the Senate majority hinged on the outcome of that contest. But that scenario was washed away by strong Republican gains earlier this month. Still, the trio of runoff…

Some Lessons for Democratic Strategists and Other Observers

Stuart Rothenberg November 19, 2014 · 1:38 PM EDT

You could feel it from Day One of this cycle. Senate Democratic strategists knew they were smarter than their Republican adversaries. They’d out-think them and out-work them.

Incumbent Democratic senators who run good campaigns rarely lose, I was reminded. Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, who had…

The Stunningly Static White Evangelical Vote

Nathan L. Gonzales November 18, 2014 · 11:04 AM EDT

There’s plenty of discussion about the difference between midterm and presidential electorates, but there is one emerging constant: the white evangelical vote.

At least one interest group, Ralph Reed’s Faith & Freedom Coalition, claimed that conservative Christians played a “decisive role” in…

Unsuccessful House Candidate Already ‘In’ for 2016

Nathan L. Gonzales November 17, 2014 · 11:09 AM EDT

The ink is barely dry on the 2014 election results, but one unsuccessful candidate is making it clear that he is running again.

Republican Paul Chabot came up short in California’s 31st District but told the Rothenberg Political Report and Roll Call Thursday he wants a re-match.

“It’s now or…