A Nerve-Wracking Finish for Democrats

Stuart Rothenberg October 30, 2014 · 3:34 PM EDT

How big of a year is this going to be for Republicans? It’s still hard to tell, one week before voters go to the polls for the midterm elections.

But it could be bigger than you think.

Republicans have a plethora of House and Senate opportunities, and given President Barack Obama’s standing in the polls and the generic ballot question — which favors the GOP narrowly — the upcoming midterms could be surprisingly reminiscent of 2010.

But it’s also a little odd that Republican candidates in so many places are struggling to pull away from their Democratic opponents, given Obama’s weakness and the terrible news — Vladimir Putin and Ukraine, the Islamic State terror group and beheadings, Ebola and terrorism in Canada — that has arrived on an almost daily basis for the past few months.

Our outlook for the Senate has changed only modestly since the Rothenberg Political Report issued specific guidance about the fight for the Senate in our newsletter more than a year ago.

In August of 2013, our initial forecast for the cycle suggested the GOP was likely to gain three to six Senate seats. At the end of the year, in mid-December, we raised our target to four seats to seven seats. Three months later, we raised our forecast to four to eight seats, and at the end of August we moved…

Senate Outlook: Advantage to Republicans

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Stuart Rothenberg October 29, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

Five Senate seats look increasingly like they will be keys to what kind of election the two parties will have this year.

The GOP looks poised to take over six Democratic seats: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. If they do that and hold all of their own, they…

House Outlook: Measuring the GOP Wave

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Nathan L. Gonzales October 29, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

Republicans are going to add to their majority in the House. But even though Election Day is just days away, it’s unclear how many seats the party will add.

President Barack Obama’s mediocre job approval rating has cast a shadow over the entire House landscape and has Democrats on the defensive…

Be Skeptical of Exit Poll Leaks on Election Day

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Nathan L. Gonzales October 29, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

There are few certainties in life: death, taxes, and someone purporting to have exit poll numbers before the polls close on Election Day. But here’s a word to the wise: If you hear or read about exit poll data before 5pm on Election Day, don’t believe them.

Mining for exit poll data is an…

Governors on the Defensive as Close Races Go Down to the Wire

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Nathan L. Gonzales October 29, 2014 · 3:57 PM EDT

The extraordinary number of very close races is not limited to contests for the House and Senate. The electoral environment is volatile, and a large number of tight and competitive gubernatorial contests leaves open the possibility of a wide range of outcomes.

On one hand, nearly a dozen…