Senate News & Analysis

Ratings Change: New Hampshire Senate

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Stuart Rothenberg October 24, 2014 · 3:05 PM EDT

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen continues to hold a narrow lead over GOP challenger Scott Brown. But Brown has exceeded our expectations, and he has cut Shaheen’s margin to the low single digits – even though the Republican’s unfavorable rating has been higher than his favorable rating.

Brown –…

South Dakota Senate Race Returning to Form

Stuart Rothenberg October 22, 2014 · 3:30 PM EDT

Republican attacks on Democrat Rick Weiland and Independent Larry Pressler appear to have worked, making it more likely that the GOP will pick up the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Tim Johnson, as long expected.

Republican Mike Rounds, a former two-term GOP governor, found himself in shockingly uncomfortable…

Not His Father’s Arkansas

Stuart Rothenberg October 20, 2014 · 10:27 AM EDT

I have been thinking for months about how politics has changed over the past decade, but those changes struck home in a very obvious way while I was reading a recent Washington Post article written by the very able Philip Rucker.

“Senator’s parents hit trail to preserve Ark.…

Senate Outlook: Lots of Moving Pieces But Fundamentally Unchanged

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Stuart Rothenberg October 17, 2014 · 3:30 PM EDT

The arithmetic for Senate control in the midterms is more complicated and confused than ever, but it is also still very dangerous for Democrats.

Who would have thought that a little more than two weeks before the election Republican strategists would be trying to spending time and money…

Why Republicans Must Win the Senate in 2014

Stuart Rothenberg October 15, 2014 · 11:09 AM EDT

If next month produces a big Republican year, with the GOP gaining control of the Senate and expanding its majority in the House, it will say little or nothing about 2016, when a presidential electorate and a very different Senate class combine to create the makings of…

Ratings Change: Arkansas Senate from Toss-up/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican

Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2014 · 8:33 AM EDT

Arkansas Senate polls released by Democrats and one media outlet suggest that incumbent Senator Mark Pryor leads GOP challenger Rep. Tom Cotton by a couple of percentage points. But most surveys – both public and unreleased – suggest Cotton holds a modest but stable mid-single digit lead in the…

Ratings Change: Alaska Senate from Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2014 · 8:32 AM EDT

The Alaska Senate race remains quite close, with incumbent Democrat Mark Begich continuing to run a quality campaign. But the contest has started to better reflect the state’s partisan bent and its attitudes about the president, and Sullivan has moved to a small but significant advantage in the most…

Ratings Change: South Dakota Senate from Republican Favored to Lean Republican

Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2014 · 8:31 AM EDT

Republican Mike Rounds continues to underperform in what has become a whacky three-way fight (four-way, if you count the Libertarian on the ballot). While the state’s Republican bent could well bail him out in November, and the NRSC has allocated money for the race, we can no longer rule…

Michigan Senate Seat Moves Away from Republicans

Nathan L. Gonzales October 9, 2014 · 3:00 PM EDT

While the campaign of Michigan GOP Senate nominee Terri Lynn Land crows about a new Wenzel Research poll showing her tailing Democratic nominee Gary Peters by less than three percentage points, it’s increasingly difficult to see this contest as highly competitive.

A year and a half ago, we…

What If I’m Wrong About GOP Flipping at Least 7 Seats?

Stuart Rothenberg October 8, 2014 · 11:26 AM EDT

A few weeks ago I wrote Senate Republicans would gain at least seven seats, even though the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call race ratings showed a likely Republican gain of five to eight seats.

That expectation was based on national survey results that showed the president extremely is…