Senate News & Analysis

The 2014 Elections: How’d We Do?

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November 21, 2014 · 3:31 PM EDT

It seems like historic elections are the norm lately. As many Americans continue to feel uncertain about the economy and jaded about politicians, the electoral environment continues to be volatile. In this month’s midterm elections, much of the frustration was taken out on President Barack Obama through candidates and…

Louisiana Races Go Into Overtime

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Nathan L. Gonzales November 21, 2014 · 3:30 PM EDT

Not so long ago, it looked as if the entire political world would descend on Louisiana for the state’s December 6 runoff because the Senate majority hinged on the outcome of that contest. But that scenario was washed away by strong Republican gains earlier this month. Still, the trio…

Some Lessons for Democratic Strategists and Other Observers

Stuart Rothenberg November 19, 2014 · 1:38 PM EDT

You could feel it from Day One of this cycle. Senate Democratic strategists knew they were smarter than their Republican adversaries. They’d out-think them and out-work them.

Incumbent Democratic senators who run good campaigns rarely lose, I was reminded. Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, who had been appointed to…

The Stunningly Static White Evangelical Vote

Nathan L. Gonzales November 18, 2014 · 11:04 AM EDT

There’s plenty of discussion about the difference between midterm and presidential electorates, but there is one emerging constant: the white evangelical vote.

At least one interest group, Ralph Reed’s Faith & Freedom Coalition, claimed that conservative Christians played a “decisive role” in the recent midterm elections.…

No Guarantee Democrats Rebound in 2016

Nathan L. Gonzales November 14, 2014 · 10:47 AM EDT

After suffering heavy losses in the House and the Senate in the recent midterm elections, some congressional Democrats may breathe a sigh of relief now that President Barack Obama is entering his final two years in office.

But the approaching end of the Obama Administration doesn’t mean Obama…

Mary Landrieu’s Tall Task in the Louisiana Runoff

Stuart Rothenberg November 13, 2014 · 4:26 PM EDT

Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary L. Landrieu has already made it quite clear that she isn’t going to go quietly in her bid to win a fourth term in next month’s Dec. 6 runoff.

Her effort to brand Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy as “nearly incoherent” ranks up there…

2014: Plenty of Surprises, but None Totally Unexpected

Stuart Rothenberg November 7, 2014 · 1:08 PM EDT

Yes, that was a wave. A big one. In many respects, it was a wave that was larger and more damaging to Democrats than in 2010.

Republicans now have more House seats, more Senate seats and more governorships than they did after the humongous GOP wave of 2010.…

Ratings Change: Louisiana Senate Moves from Tilt Republican To Lean Republican

Nathan L. Gonzales November 6, 2014 · 4:20 PM EDT

There was a chance that the entire country would be spending the month of November focused on Louisiana as the Senate majority hinged on the fate of Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu in a December runoff. That scenario has evaporated, but is the race still worth watching?

Landrieu finished…

The Midterms and the Super Bowl, a Tale of Two Routs

Nathan L. Gonzales November 5, 2014 · 1:00 PM EDT

A week before the election, Stu waded into the discussion about what constitutes an electoral wave. One of his main points: “I know it when I see it.” Well, we saw it on Tuesday.

While Republicans gained more House and Senate seats than the most likely…

Senate Ratings vs. Senate Expecations (Stu’s Sept. 8 Outlook)

Stuart Rothenberg November 5, 2014 · 12:23 PM EDT

This column first appeared in Roll Call on Sept. 8, 2014.

While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.

But I wouldn’t be shocked by…