Unsuccessful House Candidate Already ‘In’ for 2016

Nathan L. Gonzales November 17, 2014 · 11:09 AM EDT

The ink is barely dry on the 2014 election results, but one unsuccessful candidate is making it clear that he is running again.

Republican Paul Chabot came up short in California’s 31st District but told the Rothenberg Political Report and Roll Call Thursday he wants a re-match.

“It’s now or…

No Guarantee Democrats Rebound in 2016

Nathan L. Gonzales November 14, 2014 · 10:47 AM EDT

After suffering heavy losses in the House and the Senate in the recent midterm elections, some congressional Democrats may breathe a sigh of relief now that President Barack Obama is entering his final two years in office.

But the approaching end of the Obama Administration doesn’t mean Obama…

Mary Landrieu’s Tall Task in the Louisiana Runoff

Stuart Rothenberg November 13, 2014 · 4:26 PM EDT

Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary L. Landrieu has already made it quite clear that she isn’t going to go quietly in her bid to win a fourth term in next month’s Dec. 6 runoff.

Her effort to brand Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy as “nearly incoherent” ranks up there with Kentucky Democrat Dan…

Review: 6 Races Both Parties Viewed Completely Differently

Nathan L. Gonzales November 11, 2014 · 10:45 AM EDT

A month ago, I wrote about “6 Races Both Parties View Completely Differently.” These were a half-dozen contests where strategists generally disagreed on the shape and trajectory of the race.

Instead of averaging out the differing opinions and declaring the races too close to call, it was more…

2014: Plenty of Surprises, but None Totally Unexpected

Stuart Rothenberg November 7, 2014 · 1:08 PM EDT

Yes, that was a wave. A big one. In many respects, it was a wave that was larger and more damaging to Democrats than in 2010.

Republicans now have more House seats, more Senate seats and more governorships than they did after the humongous GOP wave of 2010. They now have the governors of…

Ratings Change: Louisiana Senate Moves from Tilt Republican To Lean Republican

Nathan L. Gonzales November 6, 2014 · 4:20 PM EDT

There was a chance that the entire country would be spending the month of November focused on Louisiana as the Senate majority hinged on the fate of Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu in a December runoff. That scenario has evaporated, but is the race still worth watching?

Landrieu finished first on…

The Midterms and the Super Bowl, a Tale of Two Routs

Nathan L. Gonzales November 5, 2014 · 1:00 PM EDT

A week before the election, Stu waded into the discussion about what constitutes an electoral wave. One of his main points: “I know it when I see it.” Well, we saw it on Tuesday.

While Republicans gained more House and Senate seats than the most likely pre-election projections, it was the…

Senate Ratings vs. Senate Expecations (Stu’s Sept. 8 Outlook)

Stuart Rothenberg November 5, 2014 · 12:23 PM EDT

This column first appeared in Roll Call on Sept. 8, 2014.

While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.

But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.


GOP Candidates More Popular Than Democrats in Top Senate Races

Nathan L. Gonzales November 4, 2014 · 4:30 PM EDT

Here is an emerging surprise of the midterm elections: Republican candidates are more popular than Democratic candidates in top Senate contests.

It’s no secret the path to victory for Democrats in the Senate was to demonize GOP candidates in the eyes of voters who are dissatisfied with…