April 8, 2005
House Races Through a Presidential Lens
This early in the cycle, with recruitment still very much underway by both party committees, it's helpful to take a look at some of the most commonly targeted districts to see how President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry faired last year.
According to new information released by Polidata, President Bush carried 255 of the 435 congressional districts in the 2004 election, compared to 180 for John Kerry. Democrats currently represent 41 of the "Bush districts" while only 18 "Kerry districts" are represented by House Republicans.
The Midwest/Plains
In Indiana 9, Baron Hill (D) is interested in reclaiming the seat he narrowly lost to Mike Sodrel (R) just a few months ago. But just like when he was in Congress, Hill faces an tough battle. Bush carried the seat 59%-40% in 2004 and 56%-42% fours years before that. There is still some talk from Democrats about knocking off Cong. Chris Chocola (R) in Indiana 2, but its getting tougher, where Bush won 56%-43% last November. And perennial target John Hostettler (R) in Indiana 8 continues to raise no money but also continues to represent a very Bush district (62%-38% in 2004).
Democrats are rightfully excited about an open seat in Iowa 1, where Kerry defeated Bush 53%-46% and Gore won it 51%-46% in 2000. Cong. Jim Nussle (R) is running for governor, leaving a difficult hold situation for Republicans. Another GOP open seat, Minnesota 6, is more difficult for the Democrats. Cong. Mark Kennedy (R) is running for the Senate, but unless Patty Wetterling (D) runs for Congress, Democrats will have a hard time winning a seat where Bush won 57%-42% last November.
Cong. Dennis Moore (D) in Kansas 3 is slipping down GOP target lists, even though Bush won the district 55%-44% in 2004. But freshman Cong. Melissa Bean (D) in Illinois 8 is near the top of GOP target lists after knocking off Phil Crane (R). She represents the most Republican district in the state. Bush won it 56%-44% in 2004 and 55%-42% in 2000.
The West
GOPers may be defending in Colorado 7, where Cong. Bob Beauprez (R) is considering a run for governor himself. The evenly drawn district went narrowly for Gore in 2000 (50.5%-49.5%) but gave Kerry a wider 51%-48% margin. Over in Colorado's 3rd District, freshman Cong. John Salazar (D) will be a GOP target. Bush won that area 55%-44%.
One favorite Republican target continues to represent a district friendly to the President. Bush won Utah's 2nd District 66%-31% last November and 63%-29% four years before that, but Cong. Jim Matheson (D) continues win reelection. Elsewhere, Cong. Darlene Hooley (D-Oregon 5) may finally get a pass after winning reelection once again, even though Bush narrowly carried the Willamette Valley district 50%-49%. Don't be surprised if Republicans throw some money at California 20, where freshman Jim Costa (D) represents a district Kerry carried by only two points.
Democrats will go after freshman Cong. Dave Reichert (R) in Washington 8 (Kerry carried the district 51%-48%), as well as Jon Porter (R) in Nevada 3. Gore narrowly carried the Clark County district in 2000, but Bush prevailed 50%-49% last cycle.
The South
Democrats are going to try to defeat Tom DeLay in his home district and every other district in the country. Bush won Texas 22 by an overwhelming 64%-36% last November, but the President may have little to do with the mid-term race if enough ethics allegations pile up. Democrats may also take a look at Texas 23, if Henry Bonilla (R) runs for the Senate. But it's a strong GOP district with Bush winning 64%-36%. On the other side, Cong. Chet Edwards (D) continues to hold on in Texas 17 even though Bush received a whopping 78% in Edwards' territory.
The President took Florida's 2nd by a 54%-46% margin, but Cong. Allen Boyd (D) easily defeated Bev Kilmer, a formidable opponent who raised plenty of money. Democrats will take another shot at Clay Shaw in Florida 22, this time with Ron Klein. Kerry carried the district 52%-48% and Gore 51%-46% in 2000.
Cong. Anne Northup (R) destroyed Tony Miller (D) in Kentucky 3, even though both Kerry and Gore carried it by two points. Robin Hayes (R-North Carolina 8) always gets attacked for his trade stances but Bush won his district 54%-45% last year. And fellow NC Cong. Charlie Taylor (R) will likely be a target once again in the 11th District (Bush 57%-43%) because of personal matters.
Republicans may take another crack at Lincoln Davis in Tennessee 4 (Bush 58%-41% in 2004) and freshman Charlie Melancon in Louisiana 3 (Bush 58%-41%). Democrats are still seething about Rodney Alexander's party switch to the Republicans in Louisiana 5 minutes before the filing deadline last year, but it will be difficult to unseat him without a strong candidate and in a district Bush won 62%-37%.
The Northeast
The region is probably the best for Democrats, but there simply aren't enough seats in play here to make much of dent in the GOP majority. Rob Simmons (R) continues to be vulnerable in Connecticut 2 (Kerry 54%-44%). And Chris Shays (R) should face another tough race in Connecticut 4 (Kerry 52%-46%). If you only watch one, watch Shays in a likely rematch with 2004 nominee Diane Farrell.
The Mid-Atlantic
This is another fertile area for Democrats with few opportunities. Cong. Jim Gerlach (R) will face another tough race in Pennsylvania 6. Kerry won the district 52%-48% in 2004 and Gore carried it in 2000. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) faces reelection in Pennsylvania 8 after winning a late-breaking open seat, vacated by moderate Cong. Jim Greenwood (R). Kerry won this district as well 51%-48%.
In Pennsylvania 17, Cong. Tim Holden (D) solidified his hold on a fairly strong Bush district (58%-42%) by easily disposing of Scott Paterno, son of the football coaching legend. Republicans may take a look at Brian Higgins (D) in New York 27, but they may have missed their chance last cycle. And Democrats love to go after Mike Ferguson (R-New Jersey 7). It's still a GOP-leaning district (53%-47% Bush) and Democrats will probably need someone other than Steve Brozak to make the race competitive.
The Southwest
Two seats to watch. Cong. Heather Wilson (R) is being mentioned as a possible (if unlikely) Senate candidate. If she were to run, her Albuquerque-based New Mexico 1 District would be difficult for Republicans to hold. Kerry won it 51%-48% in 2004 and Gore 48%-47% in 2000. Wilson has proven she can win reelection in all sorts of scenarios, but an open seat is a different story. In Arizona 1, Cong. Rick Renzi (R) is a constant Democratic target. Bush won Arizona 1 54%-46% last cycle, but Democrats could make the race competitive if they find the right candidate.
By Nathan L. Gonzales