Don’t Bet on Gingrich Showing Up in Tampa

Stuart Rothenberg February 4, 2012 · 10:48 AM EDT

The conventional wisdom now is that, even with the Republican nomination slipping further and further away, former Speaker Newt Gingrich will fight tooth and nail all the way to Tampa, making life miserable for the party’s likely nominee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

That scenario certainly is possible, and Democrats surely would benefit from seven months of bloodletting between the party’s establishment and tea party/populist wings.

Maybe I simply like being a contrarian from time to time, but count me as skeptical that Gingrich will fight all the way until June and even beyond, no matter how much bravado and bombast was in his speech Tuesday night.

There is no doubting Gingrich’s contempt for Romney, whose allies have pounded the Georgia Republican repeatedly since he returned from the political graveyard right after Herman Cain’s exit from the GOP race.

Gingrich hasn’t called to congratulate Romney after his two victories, and the former Speaker must be deeply frustrated with his inability to capitalize on his South Carolina victory.

After all, this is a man who thinks big and talks big — a man who, I imagine, thought that he would be his party’s nominee. Modesty and humility don’t come easily to Gingrich, so the thought that he might have missed his…

Tar Heel Blues Continue For Democrats

Jessica Taylor February 3, 2012 · 10:51 AM EDT

It’s a rough time to be a North Carolina Democrat.

In the span of just a week, the party’s seen Gov. Bev Perdue choose retirement over a competitive reelection she was likely to lose, Rep. Brad Miller headed for the exits rather than face Rep. David Price in a Democratic primary, and moderate…

Oregon Escapes Notice in Voter Photo ID Battle

Nathan L. Gonzales February 3, 2012 · 10:25 AM EDT

More than 200,000 people voted in this week’s special election in Oregon’s 1st district, and none of them had to show photo identification before they cast their ballot.

As the voter ID battle rages on in states across the country, the Beaver State hardly registers within the movement, even…

Florida Map Coming Into Focus

Jessica Taylor February 1, 2012 · 5:41 PM EDT

As Florida Republicans approach a compromise on redistricting, a game of musical chairs between GOP Reps. Allen West and Tom Rooney could potentially save one of the most endangered members of Congress.

With Rooney announcing he’ll run in the solidly Republican 17th District, which includes…

In Presidential Polling, Context Always Matters

Stuart Rothenberg February 1, 2012 · 2:20 PM EDT

It’s as predictable as night following day.

Events drive public sentiment, which then shows up in polling. Then, people who either want to make a splash or more often simply want to drive home partisan talking points use the numbers to proclaim a fundamental shift in public opinion and…