District Polls Are Troubling Signs for Democrats
September 8, 2010 · 10:38 AM EDT
While serious Democratic observers worry whether their party can somehow hang on to 218 seats in the House, more than a few Republican strategists and neutral observers have become convinced that the GOP is on the cusp of a stunning victory that could at least equal the party’s 52-seat 1994 gain.
Not only have Democrats been unable to change the trajectory of the midterms, but the last few months have served to solidify and strengthen the GOP’s prospects.
The economy is weakening, not strengthening, and the jobs outlook is as bad as it has been in months. The controversy over the building of a mosque/community center near ground zero didn’t enhance President Barack Obama’s reputation, and the upcoming trials of Reps. Charlie Rangel (N.Y.) and Maxine Waters (Calif.) could further embarrass the Democratic Party.
The only good news for the White House is the exit of U.S. troops from Iraq and the beginning of Mideast peace talks. But those issues simply aren’t as salient to most voters as the economy.
The Democratic strategy for minimizing losses remains twofold. First, make the midterm elections a choice between the two parties rather than a referendum on Obama,…
Wave builds for GOP in the House
September 6, 2010 · 9:30 PM EDT
National and local polls continue to show further deterioration in Democratic prospects. Given that, we are increasing our target of likely Republican gains from 28-33 seats to 37-42 seats, with the caveat that substantially larger GOP gains in the 45-55 seat range are quite possible. The next few weeks…
2010 House Ratings (September 6, 2010)
September 6, 2010 · 10:01 PM EDT
2010 Senate Ratings (September 6, 2010)
September 6, 2010 · 10:00 AM EDT
Is Rasmussen Better Than its Reputation?
August 31, 2010 · 8:00 AM EDT
There isn’t a lot of consensus in Washington, D.C., but party operatives on both sides of the aisle as well as members of the media seem to be united in their distrust of polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports. But with new polling by a Democratic firm in three key…
