That scenario certainly is possible, and Democrats surely would benefit from seven months of bloodletting between the party’s establishment and tea party/populist wings.

Maybe I simply like being a contrarian from time to time, but count me as skeptical that Gingrich will fight all the way until June and even beyond, no matter how much bravado and bombast was in his speech Tuesday night.

There is no doubting Gingrich’s contempt for Romney, whose allies have pounded the Georgia Republican repeatedly since he returned from the political graveyard right after Herman Cain’s exit from the GOP race.

Gingrich hasn’t called to congratulate Romney after his two victories, and the former Speaker must be deeply frustrated with his inability to capitalize on his South Carolina victory.

After all, this is a man who thinks big and talks big — a man who, I imagine, thought that he would be his party’s nominee. Modesty and humility don’t come easily to Gingrich, so the thought that he might have missed his opportunity must be difficult to accept. He looks and sounds like a bitter man.

The night of a crushing defeat in a key state was not likely to be the moment Gingrich took a cold-blooded look at his prospects. So it shouldn’t have been surprising that Gingrich’s first reaction Tuesday evening would be one of defiance, as he reiterated his belief that he would be the Republican nominee to face President Barack Obama and promised to take the fight to 46 more states.

But even with proportional representation (required during March contests) preventing the eventual nominee from locking up the nomination quickly, the process makes it difficult for a traditional kind of candidate, such as Gingrich, to remain a factor in the race — especially as long as former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum remains a viable option for conservatives.

Unlike Rep. Ron Paul, who is promoting his libertarian agenda and has supporters who care more about making their case than about winning the nomination, Gingrich is actually running for president. He’ll need money, victories and a demonstrable path to the nomination to keep his candidacy going.

None of the next seven contests that will select delegates look tailor-made for Gingrich, so it won’t be until March 6, Super Tuesday, that he can show electoral strength. Missouri’s Feb. 7 primary won’t select delegates, but even there, Santorum will be on the ballot, not Gingrich.

A month from now, Gingrich might look even weaker, and the Romney bandwagon could pick up steam as previously undecided voters decide to support the man who they figure will become the party’s eventual nominee.

If that happens, Super Tuesday, with a roster of states less opportune for Gingrich than you might think, could virtually end his candidacy instead of resuscitate it.

Yes, the former Speaker should do well in Georgia and probably in Oklahoma and Alaska. But he won’t be competing in one of three Southern states (Virginia), and his prospects in the third, Tennessee, are uncertain.

Tennessee, after all, is really two or three states in one. Eastern Tennessee is mountain Republican, the kind of place filled with Republicans such as Sens. Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker. Romney should do well there. The rest of the state is more Southern and conservative, though there are pockets of more moderate and establishment Republicans around Memphis and the growing Nashville suburbs.

In battles over the years between “very conservative” and “somewhat conservative” Republican candidates, the more moderate (stylistically, at least) GOP candidates have tended to win. And that has to be worrisome for Gingrich strategists.

If Romney wins two Southern states March 6 — Virginia and Tennessee — and carries Massachusetts, Ohio and a number of other obvious states that day, it will be harder for Gingrich to argue at all persuasively that he has any chance of winning the Republican nomination.

Given the nature of the national media’s coverage of the race, the importance of financial backers in a presidential race and the likelihood that even some of Gingrich’s most loyal supporters will start to suggest that he is doing himself no good by staying in a race that is already over, the ex-Speaker might not feel the same way he did Tuesday night about taking his fight all the way to Tampa.

And if he does remain in the race, he may well adjust his tactics, away from criticizing Romney and more toward simply trying to establish himself as a leader of the conservative cause in the GOP.

Of course, the roller-coaster nature of the race so far means that a few more twists and turns are possible. A surprise revelation or a mistake by a candidate could turn things around. There is no need to count anyone out of the race just yet.

But now the burden clearly is on Gingrich — and Santorum — to change the narrative and the trajectory of the Republican contest. If they can do that, the race can go on for months for one or both of them. If they can’t, they might find that they become less and less relevant — to the media, to their funders and, yes, even to the voters.

In the span of just a week, the party’s seen Gov. Bev Perdue choose retirement over a competitive reelection she was likely to lose, Rep. Brad Miller headed for the exits rather than face Rep. David Price in a Democratic primary, and moderate Rep. Heath Shuler has taken a knee instead of running for reelection in his now Republican-leaning district.

And shakeups in the Tar Heel State may not be done yet. As Democrats search for a replacement for Perdue, Rep. Mike McIntyre, another endangered Democrat, has publically floated a run. If McIntyre does follow through, that could leave Rep. Larry Kissell in the 8th District as the only remaining vulnerable Democrat in the quartet Republicans sought to target who chose to stick it out and fight. Former Rep. Bob Etheridge – the only North Carolina Democrat to lose in 2010, mostly of his own doing after a confrontation with a GOP tracker – has just entered the race for governor, and that could cause McIntyre and even Miller to reconsider their statewide plans.

Still, North Carolina was always going to be a tough state for national Democrats. While their most vulnerable congressional members did survive the brutal wave election of 2010, Republicans took control of the Legislature for the first time in over a century, giving them complete control of redistricting. As governor, Perdue had no veto power over their plans.

National Democrats had insisted for months that the last cycle had made their incumbents in the state battle tested. Even as Shuler was a constant source of retirement rumors and speculation, he was being considered for athletic director at the University of Tennessee, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel insisted at a press conference in November he was “very confident” Shuler would run again.

Tar Heel Democrats may ultimately be better off without Perdue on the ballot. Long considered the most vulnerable sitting governor, she’d come under fire for her handling of disaster response in the wake of tornadoes and other scandals with her staff. Miller’s decision, too, helped Democrats avoid a divisive primary with Price, although they’re still in need of a candidate in his former 13th District.

Shuler’s decision is likely to sting the most for Democrats. The former Redskins quarterback had cultivated a centrist image, even waging a largely symbolic campaign against Nancy Pelosi for minority leader and was a leading voice for more moderation in the shrinking Democratic caucus.

The 40 year-old congressman had often voiced his frustration with Washington, and had recently told a local paper that being in Congress “gets old.” One North Carolina Democrat said getting him to run again in even 2008 and 2010 was a constant battle, and that his drive had evaporated. And, the frustrating thing to state Democrats was that they could still hold onto the seat, especially with Republicans in the redrawn 11th District facing a fractious primary of their own. “The seat is winnable for him. As bad as it looked on paper, it could have been done,” said a Democratic operative in the state.

Shuler’s announcement also comes less than a month before the Feb. 29 filing deadline, leaving his party scrambling to find a candidate who can fill the moderate void ahead of the May 8 primary. Early speculation appears to be centering on Shuler’s chief of staff, Hayden Rogers, as a possible replacement.

Still, all hope isn’t completely lost for Democrats in the Tar Heel state. Although they’re increasingly looking like an endangered species, Republicans have some glaring weaknesses in the state as well, and haven’t completely capitalized yet on the opportunities redistricting afforded them.

McIntrye may be the best positioned of any of the remaining Democrats to win reelection, and a weak Republican field may have him reconsidering his flirtation with a gubernatorial bid. His 2010 challenger Ilario Pantano has essentially never stopped running since his eight point loss to McIntyre. But Pantano had less than $9,000 in the bank at the end of 2011. Republicans regard state Rep. David Rouzer as the better general election candidate, but acknowledge that Pantano certainly does have a loyal following and him winning the primary is a very real scenario that would help McIntyre survive. Pantano has released several internal polls showing him leading Rouzer and has already released a scathing TV ad attacking Rouzer over immigration. Rouzer raised only $83,000 in the last quarter, while McIntyre brought in $194,000.

The 8th District primary to determine who will face Kissell is even more crowded but equally messy. There are as many as six serious candidates in the race, several who can self fund. Former congressional chief of staff Richard Hudson is typically seen as the frontrunner, but Republican insiders are concerned over the presence of former Winston Salem City Councilman Vernon Robinson, who’s made several previous runs for Congress and has become well known for his controversial ads touting himself as the “black Jesse Helms.” While Robinson has district-hopped, he does have a following, and if he were to win a fractured primary, Republicans are very worried he would endanger what should be an easy pick up for the GOP.

And while 11th District Republicans got a boost with Shuler’s exit on Thursday, the growing field has yet to coalesce around a single candidate, or even candidates. Local District Attorney Jeff Hunt was initially seen as a strong candidate, but his fundraising has proved lackluster, and now some GOP insiders see wealthy businessmen Mark Meadows and recent entrant Ethan Wingfield – who can both pump their own money into their campaigns – as the ones now to beat.

While a Republican sweep of the competitive seats in North Carolina in 2012 isn’t a foregone conclusion, the events of the past week and even more possible moves make a tough Democratic road even harder. And Democrats’ willingness to head for the exits rather than tough it out through tough races isn’t a good sign for their party. In Illinois, Democrats had total control of redistricting and made life similarly tough for the GOP in the Land of Lincoln – but every Republican still chose to tough it out. Blue Dog Democrats were already an endangered species after 2010, and recent days certainly won’t help their path back to relevance.
 

As the voter ID battle rages on in states across the country, the Beaver State hardly registers within the movement, even though it’s possible for an Oregonian to vote without ever having to show a photo ID.

“For people arguing about photo IDs, they just haven’t even taken Oregon under consideration,” one GOP strategist said.

The lack of national attention on Oregon is likely a combination of political circumstances and culture as well as a general lack of knowledge about the voting system in the Pacific Northwest.

Since 2000, elections in Oregon have been conducted entirely by mail, so there is no one to check IDs at a polling place because polling places do not exist. Ballots must be received (either by mail or at a drop site) by 8 p.m. PST on Election Day.

Voters aren’t required to have a photo ID to register to vote either. They can supply the last four digits of their Social Security number and a utility bill to get added to the voter rolls at least 21 days before the next election.

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus has been outspoken about the voter ID issue, but Oregon doesn’t appear to be a big concern, or any concern at all.

“These voter integrity initiatives are a state-by-state issue, and it’s up to any given state to determine what is best for them,” RNC Press Secretary Kirsten Kukowski told Roll Call. “In general, the RNC strives for as much transparency as possible in the process to ensure the integrity of our election process is protected.”

If Oregon were more of a battleground state, it would likely get more attention.

There’s more concern on the ground but not a lot of options for critics of the system to move forward. Nationally, Republicans appear to be focused on states where they control legislatures and governorships, which is not the case in Oregon. Anything that got through the state Legislature would likely be vetoed by a Democratic governor.

“We have lots of problems with vote-by-mail,” said Greg Leo, chief of staff at the Oregon Republican Party, citing misdelivered ballots, lack of accountability and the potential for fraud as some of the key concerns. But there isn’t an active effort to overturn the entire vote-by-mail system. State Rep. Kim Thatcher (R) introduced a bill that would install an e-verify system for voter registration to ensure only legal residents are able to vote.

“I just don’t think anyone’s really thought about it,” one national GOP consultant said about the lack of attention. “Oregon is not a place with a fraud culture, so we don’t feel a need to fight this stuff much there.”

“There is, at times, a naive sense that elections here are fair and clean and everyone will do the right thing. It speaks to our political culture,” veteran Portland-based GOP consultant Dan Lavey said. “It lends people to shy away from confronting these concerns.”

Officials at the Oregon secretary of state’s office are adamant about their measures to verify voters’ identities and combat fraud.

A voter casts a ballot by placing it in a secrecy envelope and signing it. Trained county election officials check that signature against the signature on file with the person’s voter registration. If there is a discrepancy, the voter is asked to come in to verify his ballot.

Vote-by-mail proponents believe strong penalties are key deterrents in eliminating abuse. Voter fraud is a class C felony and punishable by up to five years in prison and a $100,000 fine.

Not all prosecutions reach that level. Last month, an 81-year-old man was sentenced to more than a year in prison and fined $5,000 for voting for both his deceased son and deceased brother.

But Lavey, a self-described longtime critic of vote-by-mail, is less concerned with fraud.

“The ability to influence the ballot they cast is far greater outside the secrecy of the polling place,” he said. That could be a growing argument if vote-by-mail and permanent absentee balloting continues to expand.

Now the state of Washington has followed Oregon’s lead by going to a vote-by-mail system. It will be fascinating to watch whether that extends to other states and clashes with the voter ID movement. 

With Rooney announcing he’ll run in the solidly Republican 17th District, which includes about 40 percent of his old 16th District, West is poised to run instead in the now-open 18th District. According to Republican sources, about a quarter of West’s former constituents are now in the 18th District, which runs along the coast and takes in St. Lucie and Martin.

The switch doesn’t guarantee West an easy election campaign, but it does make his path back to Congress a bit simpler.

The 22nd District, where West currently lives, is an uphill climb for any Republican. It voted 56 percent for President Obama in 2008 and 55 percent for John Kerry in 2004. But the 18th District is about six points better for a Republican. Obama carried it with just 51 percent, while George W. Bush won it narrowly four years earlier.

Always a prodigious fundraiser, West kept up that pace in the last quarter of 2011, pulling in $1.7 million, leaving him with an imposing $2.7 million in the bank.

It’s not fully clear what West’s declared challengers, who have already been raising money rapidly to take on the tea party icon, will do. Former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel said in a statement she’ll stick with the 22nd District, while businessman Patrick Murphy blasted West, a Army veteran, as a “coward” and said he’d continue to “monitor the redistricting process.”

Republican insiders are optimistic about former state Rep. Adam Hasner’s candidacy in the 22nd, who dropped his Senate bid to run here instead. The district takes in much of his old legislative district, but it’s still a difficult one for Republicans, although they believe Frankel has weaknesses during her tenure as mayor they can exploit.

If the House map is enacted, Democrats could pick up two to four seats under their best case scenario, but that’s still not the outcome they had hoped for. With this map, Republicans are able to be competitive in new seats and possibly even keep several districts that their endangered freshmen hold.

The map, as it stands now, has nine solidly Republican seats, with eight additional seats leaning toward the GOP. Two seats appear to be pure toss-ups – West’s new 18th District and longtime Republican Rep. Bill Young’s 13th District. If Young retires – or whenever he does retire – this seat would immediately become competitive, but as long as he’s running, the veteran has the edge. Two seats lean Democratic – the now-open 22nd and the new 9th District – while Democrats have six safe seats.

Freshman GOP Rep. Steve Southerland’s Panhandle district becomes slightly more Democratic, going from a district McCain took with 54 percent to one the Republican presidential nominee won with 52 percent.

Freshman Republican Daniel Webster, now in the 10th District, would see his district getting about five points more Republican. Under the new lines, McCain would have carried the district with 52 percent and Bush with 57 percent, making the race more difficult for former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings, one of Democrats’ top recruits this cycle.

Former Rep. Alan Grayson, who lost handily to Webster in 2010, is expected to run in the new 9th District. The Orlando-area district has about 40 percent Hispanic voting age population, and is one Obama won with 60 percent in 2008. Bush took it with just over 50 percent in 2004. Those 2004 numbers give Republicans hope, and a likely candidate there could be Osceola County Commissioner John Quinones.

Freshman Republican Rich Nugent is drawn into the same 11th District as veteran Rep. Cliff Stearns, but one of them is expected to run in the neighboring 3rd District – currently open – instead. The 3rd District is about four points more Republican.

Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan, now in the 16th District, would see his Sarasota seat get slightly less Republican, though both McCain and Bush carried it. The congressman has faced investigations into his campaign accounts, and former state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald (D) has announced he’ll challenge him.

The district of another embattled Republican, freshman Rep. David Rivera, would get about a point more Democratic. But it still would have gone narrowly for McCain, while Bush took 54 percent in the new 26th District. Rivera, facing a possible indictment over his campaign finances, raised only $42,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011 and has only $92,000 cash on hand.

Another big question mark is what will GOP Rep. John Mica do. The transportation chairman was drawn into the same 7th District as fellow Republican Rep. Sandy Adams, who has already declared her intention to seek reelection there.

His other option could be to run in the 6th District, where former Ruth’s Chris CEO Craig Miller just announced he’ll run instead of continuing in the GOP Senate primary.

Mica’s campaign has said he’s waiting for the process to be completed before making a choice, and while he’s certainly sounded like he’s going to run, some Republicans say they wouldn’t be surprised if he chose retirement.

While this map is only tentative and hasn’t been officially passed in the legislature, there are certain to be court challenges under the new Fair Districts law that would alter the landscape yet again.

A coalition of interest groups supporting the Fair Districts criteria have already complained to GOP Redistricting Chairman Will Weatherford, arguing that the number of safe Republican seats more than doubles safe Democratic ones, which they say doesn’t accurately reflect that state’s partisan breakdown. A number of legal battles are likely.
 

Events drive public sentiment, which then shows up in polling. Then, people who either want to make a splash or more often simply want to drive home partisan talking points use the numbers to proclaim a fundamental shift in public opinion and political reality, regardless of whether there is one.

The latest example of this is the Jan. 22-24 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which, as regular readers of this column should know, is my favorite national survey. I read, respect and consider many other surveys, but I’ll admit a special place in my heart for the survey conducted jointly by Colby College graduate Peter Hart (D) of Peter D. Hart Research Associates and Bill McInturff (R) of Public Opinion Strategies.

The January NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey has interesting results, but even they should be seen in context if they are going to be understood correctly.

I don’t for a moment dispute the poll’s numbers, which show growing public optimism, a politically stronger President Barack Obama, damage to the image of likely GOP nominee Mitt Romney and improved prospects for a second Obama term.

But if context is important — and it always is — I’d be cautious about jumping to conclusions on the basis of the most recent Hart-McInturff survey.

There is plenty of good news for Democrats in the recent poll.

Americans are more upbeat now, with 30 percent of respondents now saying the country is headed in the “right direction” and 61 percent saying the “wrong track.” That’s up from 22 percent right direction/69 percent wrong track in December and 19 percent right direction/73 percent wrong track in November.

Not surprising, given that trend, Obama’s job performance numbers have rebounded to 48 percent approval/46 percent disapproval from a low of 44 percent approval/51 disapproval in October and November.

Congress’ approval is down, with only 13 percent of respondents approving of its performance. That’s down from a 22 percent approval in February 2011. That should give Democrats a weapon to use in this year’s campaign.

The GOP brand is much worse than Democrats’.

Almost the same percentage of respondents had a favorable view of the Democratic Party (38 percent) as an unfavorable view (39 percent). On the other hand, they had a much less favorable view of the GOP (31 percent) and a much higher unfavorable opinion (44 percent) of that party.

I’ve always liked the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll’s wording on the generic Congressional ballot — respondents are asked whether they would like a Congress controlled by Republicans or Democrats — and the most recent survey shows Democrats with an advantage of 47 percent to 41 percent, a marked change from August, when Republicans held a 6-point advantage.

In the generic presidential ballot, Obama leads an unnamed Republican candidate, 47 percent to 42 percent, and he is ahead against Romney by a similar margin, 49 percent to 43 percent. Against former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.), Obama is well above 50 percent. (A Gallup poll conducted a few days after this one showed Obama and Romney tied at 48 percent.)

Romney’s standing has taken a particularly hard hit among independents, who see him less favorably than before and are more inclined to support the president against the former Massachusetts governor.

All of this is true and reflects a shift in opinion. But here is where context comes in.

This survey was conducted after the holiday break. Congress had been out of town, the president had largely been out of the headlines, and Americans spent much of the last month enjoying and then recovering from the holidays.

The only politics that Americans have seen recently is weeks of Republicans beating each other up in the presidential race.
Gingrich says how terrible Romney is. Santorum says how terrible Romney (and sometimes Gingrich) is. And Romney says how terrible Gingrich is. It’s the classic circular firing squad.
And after a month of Republicans assassinating Republicans, guess what? Polls find that the public at large has an increasingly poor impression of the Republican Party and GOP White House hopefuls. That’s not at all unusual.

Remember, of course, that all of this is occurring during a strengthening stock market, a drop in the unemployment rate and talk on television and in newspapers of an improving, albeit still sluggish, economy.

And yet, when you put some of the numbers in context, the situation is less clear. The new survey’s right direction/wrong track (30 percent/61 percent) isn’t much different than the result in the late October 2010 poll (31 percent/60 percent), when Republicans won a huge victory. Obama’s current job approval (48 percent) is only a single point better than it was in mid-October 2010 (47 percent).

Even more noteworthy, the current 6-point Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is only a little better than the party’s 2-point advantage in October 2010 and is far smaller than its 13-point advantage right before the 2008 elections.

But even if the economy doesn’t move one way or the other decisively, you can bet that the partisan argument will heat up again, putting the president back into focus and into the center of the political discussion.

And when the GOP race ends, probably well before the convention in August, voters will start to compare the two nominees across a large number of dimensions during a very spirited campaign.

I’d bet that only then will independents, who are more sensitive to short-term factors and the national mood, seriously consider the two nominees and decide how they will vote. And only then will we get a reliable handle on the shape of the electorate heading toward Election Day.

It looks like former state senator Suzanne Bonamici (D) defeated businessman Rob Cornilles (R) by roughly the same margin as a year ago when Rep. David Wu (D) defeated Cornilles by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent.

“We assumed there was more excitement than there apparently is,” said Greg Leo, chief of staff at the Oregon Republican Party, on Tuesday before the election results were in.

“A pretty conventional, competent Democrat defeated a pretty conventional, competent Republican in a Democrat district,” explained one GOP strategist. Barack Obama received over 60 percent in the 1st District in 2008.

But despite the partisan nature of the district, Democrats didn’t take anything for granted and believed that a loss would have been devastating to the national narrative about the fight for the House.

In total, Democrats outspent Republicans on television about 4-to-1, according to Smart Media Delta, a GOP buying firm. Bonamici spent about a half a million dollars on television, the Democratic Congressional Committee almost a million, in addition to spending from a few other Democratic groups.

“Democrats used their financial advantage to create and control the narrative of the race,” explained one GOP consultant, who also credited Democrats for destroying two of Cornilles’ key strengths: being an independent and a job creator.

Democrats took a page from Republicans’ playbook from last year’s special election in Nevada, where the National Republican Congressional Committee spent heavily on early television ads to make sure that the race never got out of hand. A difference is that Republicans were defending a district where John McCain won by just 89 votes.

The DCCC sat out the Nevada race while the NRCC was very quiet in Oregon. They spent money on a coordinated ad with Cornilles, in what looked like a reward for running a good campaign. Even though a Moore Information poll for the Cornilles campaign, taken less than three weeks ago, showed the Republican within four points of Bonamici, most GOP strategists were skeptical that the race was ever winnable because of the partisan nature of the district. Obama performed about five points better in the 1st District than in New York’s 9th District that Republicans won last year.

This election in Oregon is notable because of the absence of Obama. Cornilles never focused on the President and Bonamici hardly talked about him either. That dynamic makes this special election different than the dozens of races that will decide the House in November, when the President’s performance will be a huge topic of debate.

Burton’s decision sets up a competitive race between former Rep. David McIntosh and former U.S. attorney Susan Brooks for the GOP nomination in eastern Indiana’s 5th District. Former Marion County coroner John McGoff (who previously lost to Burton in primaries) and attorney Jack Lugar are also in the race.

The filing deadline is not until February 10 for the May primary so other candidates could still get in. State Rep. Mike Delph, who is close to Burton and announced the congressman’s retirement decision from the floor of the state House, could get in now that the Burton isn’t running.

McIntosh had about $300,000 in the bank at the end of September while Brooks showed $325,000 at the end of the year. McGoff had $98,000 and Lugar $822 on hand at the end of December. McIntosh has until the end of the day to file their year-end reports.

Even though he’s a former Member of Congress, McIntosh is not guaranteed to win the primary. He’s been a lobbyist in Washington for the past decade, and some GOP sources believe he could be outshined by Brooks on the campaign trail when it comes to charisma.

Burton narrowly won the 2010 primary with 29.7 percent against six other candidates. Former state Rep. Luke Messer finished two points behind Burton in the race and is regarded as the frontrunner in the neighboring 6th District, vacated by Rep. Mike Pence (R), who is running for governor.

Even though there was a chance Burton could have benefitted, again, from multiple challengers dividing the vote against him, his re-nomination was far from a certainty. He only represents about two-thirds of the redrawn 5th District, which is now more compact after giving up all or parts of four northern counties (some of Burton’s best territory) as well as two southern counties. It adds Blackford and Madison counties from the 6th District on the eastern boundary.

State Rep. Scott Reske and labor union activist Tony Long are running on the Democratic side, but the heavily-Republican district is not at risk of a partisan takeover.

John McCain won the redrawn district with 53 percent in 2008, four points more than he received statewide, and George W. Bush won it with 59 percent in 2004. The 5th District remains Currently Safe for Republicans, and may even be safer without a long-time incumbent for Democrats to run against.  

Buoyed by GOP gains in…

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Republicans, overall, have done a better job at avoiding the often-inevitable match-ups. When looking at anticipated primaries between sitting incumbents only, Republicans as of now are likely to have only three while Democrats could have as many as six. With maps not yet finalized in Florida, New York or Texas, more are certainly possible for both parties.

While…

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While the Buckeye State will see some key battles this spring that will likely select the next Member of Congress, Ohio doesn’t have as many competitive primaries as originally thought.

Republicans avoided an incumbent versus incumbent battle when Steve Austria decided to retire rather than take on Michael Turner.…

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In the 2nd District, Cong. Jesse Jackson Jr. faces a former colleague, Debbie Halvorson, in the March 20 Democratic primary in a redrawn district that stretches well outside of his normal Chicago base. New Democratic opportunities in the 8th and 10th Districts drew multiple candidates looking to unseat GOP Members this fall.

And in the 16th District, Republicans have an incumbent vs. incumbent match-up between Don Manzullo and Adam Kinzinger in a GOP-leaning district.

2nd District
Even…

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Neither Bachus’ 6th District nor Brooks’ 5th District is at risk of a Democratic takeover, making the GOP contests supremely important.

5th District
In the 5th District, former Cong. Parker Griffith is hoping for some of that Southern forgiveness that GOP primary voters showed Newt Gingrich last weekend in South Carolina. Unfortunately for Griffith, party-switching might…

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At one point, Nunnelee, Palazzo, and Bennie Thompson (D) looked like they would all face serious primaries. But with the initial elections just six weeks away, it looks like only Nunnelee may have something to worry about.

1st District
Travis Childers (D) won a high profile special election in spring 2008 to takeover a GOP open seat in a…

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Gingrich, who drew 40% of the vote, rolled up particularly strong margins among evangelical Christians, among those voters who said a candidate’s religious beliefs mattered, and among self-identified conservatives. The former speaker did well in all parts of the state (losing only the Columbia and Charleston areas), but particularly in rural areas.

Whether it was his Mormon religion or problems with his party’s most conservative elements, Romney continues to be…

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State Rep. Bill Faison was preparing to challenge Perdue in the primary, but Democrats have until the Feb. 29 filing deadline to get another candidate in the race. Early names mentioned include Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, former Cong. Bobby Etheridge, former White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles and Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx. Attorney General Roy Cooper already declined…

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In Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren (D) raised an incredible $5.7 million in the fourth quarter of last year and another $1 million already in January. She still trails Sen. Scott Brown in cash on hand, but neither candidate will suffer for a lack of money. Both candidates have agreed to try and limit outside spending in the race, but they have no power to make that decision. You should still expect the most competitve and…

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