The Rothenberg Political Report http://www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ The Rothenberg Political Report is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments. Stuart Rothenberg Fri, 14 Jun 2013 16:56:26 +0000 en Copyright 2013 2014 House Ratings (June 14, 2013) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/2014-house-ratings-june-14-2013 Fri, 14 Jun 2013 16:56:26 +0000 Currently Safe Seats
Democrat: 177 Republican: 212

Seats in Play

Democrat: 24 New Seats: 0 Republican: 22

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 1
AZ 2 D Barber
CO 6 R Coffman
NC 7 D McIntyre
UT 4 D Matheson

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 5 Republican: 0
AZ 1 D Kirkpatrick
FL 18 D Murphy
FL 26 D Garcia
NH 1 D Shea-Porter
TX 23 D Gallego

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 8 Republican: 1
CA 31 R Miller ←
CA 36 D Ruiz
CA 52 D Peters →
CA 7 D Bera
GA 12 D Barrow
IL 10 D Schneider →
IL 12 D Enyart
MA 6 D Tierney
NH 2 D Kuster

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 8 Republican: 0
AZ 9 D Sinema
IL 17 D Bustos
MN 7 D Peterson
NY 1 D Bishop
NY 18 D Maloney
NY 21 D Owens
NY 24 D Maffei
WV 3 D Rahall ←

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 5
CA 21 R Valadao
IL 13 R R. Davis
MI 1 R Benishek
NY 19 R Gibson
OH 14 R Joyce

Lean Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 5
FL 2 R Southerland
IN 2 R Walorski
NV 3 R Heck
NY 11 R Grimm
NY 23 R Reed

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 10
CA 10 R Denham
FL 10 R Webster
IA 3 R Latham
MI 11 R Bentivolio
MN 2 R Kline
NE 2 R Terry
OH 7 R Gibbs
PA 12 R Rothfus
PA 8 R Fitzpatrick
WV 2 R Open Capito

House Outlook

Republicans have a 234-201 majority. Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/2014-house-ratings-june-14-2013 2014 Senate Ratings (June 14, 2013) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-june-14-2013 Fri, 14 Jun 2013 16:55:36 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 20 Republican: 15

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
AR II D Pryor
LA II D Landrieu
MT II D Open Baucus

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AK II D Begich
NC II D Hagan

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
IA II D Open Harkin

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
MA II D Open Cowan Special
NH II D Shaheen

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 10 Republican: 1
CO II D M. Udall
DE II D Coons
HI III D Schatz
IL II D Durbin
MI II D Open Levin
MN II D Franken
NJ II R Open Chiesa Special
NM II D T. Udall
OR II D Merkley
RI II D Reed
VA II D Warner

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Republican

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
SD II D Open Johnson
WV II D Open Rockefeller

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 2
KY II R McConnell
ME II R Collins

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 12
AL II R Sessions
GA II R Open Chambliss
ID II R Risch
KS II R Roberts
MS II R Cochran
NE II R Open Johanns
OK II R Inhofe
SC II R Graham
SC III R Scott
TN II R Alexander
TX II R Cornyn
WY II R Enzi

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 54-46 majority. But Republicans will likely lose this year’s special election in New Jersey, pushing the Democratic majority back to 55-45 and requiring a +6 GOP gain to flip control. Republican gains seem to be inevitable but the size is still in doubt.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-june-14-2013 2014 Senate Ratings (June 4, 2013) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-june-4-2013 Tue, 04 Jun 2013 14:52:38 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 20 Republican: 15

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
AR II D Pryor
LA II D Landrieu
MT II D Open Baucus

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AK II D Begich
NC II D Hagan

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
IA II D Open Harkin

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
MA II D Open Cowan Special
NH II D Shaheen

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 10 Republican: 1
CO II D M. Udall
DE II D Coons
HI III D Schatz
IL II D Durbin
MI II D Open Levin
MN II D Franken
NJ II R Open Chiesa Special
NM II D T. Udall
OR II D Merkley
RI II D Reed
VA II D Warner

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Republican

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
SD II D Open Johnson
WV II D Open Rockefeller

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 2
KY II R McConnell
ME II R Collins

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 12
AL II R Sessions
GA II R Open Chambliss
ID II R Risch
KS II R Roberts
MS II R Cochran
NE II R Open Johanns
OK II R Inhofe
SC II R Graham
SC III R Scott
TN II R Alexander
TX II R Cornyn
WY II R Enzi

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 54-46 majority. But Republicans will likely lose this year’s special election in New Jersey, pushing the Democratic majority back to 55-45 and requiring a +6 GOP gain to flip control. Republican gains seem to be inevitable but the size is still in doubt.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-june-4-2013 2014 House Ratings (May 31, 2013) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/2014-house-ratings-may-31-2013 Fri, 31 May 2013 17:56:22 +0000 Currently Safe Seats
Democrat: 177 Republican: 212

Seats in Play

Democrat: 24 New Seats: 0 Republican: 22

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 1
AZ 2 D Barber
CO 6 R Coffman
NC 7 D McIntyre
UT 4 D Matheson

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 5 Republican: 0
AZ 1 D Kirkpatrick
FL 18 D Murphy
FL 26 D Garcia
NH 1 D Shea-Porter
TX 23 D Gallego

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 8 Republican: 1
CA 31 R Miller ←
CA 36 D Ruiz
CA 52 D Peters →
CA 7 D Bera
GA 12 D Barrow
IL 10 D Schneider →
IL 12 D Enyart
MA 6 D Tierney
NH 2 D Kuster

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 8 Republican: 0
AZ 9 D Sinema
IL 17 D Bustos
MN 7 D Peterson
NY 1 D Bishop
NY 18 D Maloney
NY 21 D Owens
NY 24 D Maffei
WV 3 D Rahall ←

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 5
CA 21 R Valadao
IL 13 R R. Davis
MI 1 R Benishek
NY 19 R Gibson
OH 14 R Joyce

Lean Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 5
FL 2 R Southerland
IN 2 R Walorski
NV 3 R Heck
NY 11 R Grimm
NY 23 R Reed

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 10
CA 10 R Denham
FL 10 R Webster
IA 3 R Latham
MI 11 R Bentivolio
MN 2 R Kline
NE 2 R Terry
OH 7 R Gibbs
PA 12 R Rothfus
PA 8 R Fitzpatrick
WV 2 R Open Capito

House Outlook

Republicans have a 234-201 majority. Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/2014-house-ratings-may-31-2013 2013-14 Gubernatorial Ratings (May 31, 2013) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/governor/2013-14-gubernatorial-ratings-May-31-2013 Fri, 31 May 2013 17:55:07 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 14 Republican: 24

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 0 Republican: 5
FL R Scott
ME R LePage
OH R Kasich
PA R Corbett
VA R Open McDonnell

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 5 Republican: 0
CT D Malloy
IL D Quinn
MA D Open Patrick
NH D Hassan
RI D Chafee ←

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 8 Republican: 0
CA D Brown
CO D Hickenlooper
HI D Abercrombie
MD D Open O'Malley
MN D Dayton
NY D Cuomo
OR D Kitzhaber
VT D Shumlin

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 1
AR D Open Beebe
MI R Snyder

Lean Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 4
AZ R Brewer
IA R Branstad
NV R Sandoval
SC R Haley

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 3
NJ R Christie
NM R Martinez
WI R Walker

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 11
AK R Parnell
AL R Bentley
GA R Deal
ID R Otter
KS R Brownback
NE R Open Heineman
OK R Fallin
SD R Daugaard
TN R Haslam
TX R Perry
WY R Mead

Governor Outlook

Republicans currently control 30 governorships to Democrats’ 20.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/governor/2013-14-gubernatorial-ratings-May-31-2013 2014 Senate Ratings (May 21, 2013) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-may-21-2013 Tue, 21 May 2013 18:26:57 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 20 Republican: 15

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
AR II D Pryor
LA II D Landrieu
MT II D Open Baucus

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AK II D Begich
NC II D Hagan

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
IA II D Open Harkin

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
MA II D Open Cowan Special
NH II D Shaheen

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 10 Republican: 1
CO II D M. Udall
DE II D Coons
HI III D Schatz
IL II D Durbin
MI II D Open Levin
MN II D Franken
NJ II R Open Chiesa Special
NM II D T. Udall
OR II D Merkley
RI II D Reed
VA II D Warner

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Republican

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
SD II D Open Johnson
WV II D Open Rockefeller

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 2
KY II R McConnell
ME II R Collins

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 12
AL II R Sessions
GA II R Open Chambliss
ID II R Risch
KS II R Roberts
MS II R Cochran
NE II R Open Johanns
OK II R Inhofe
SC II R Graham
SC III R Scott
TN II R Alexander
TX II R Cornyn
WY II R Enzi

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 54-46 majority. But Republicans will likely lose this year’s special election in New Jersey, pushing the Democratic majority back to 55-45 and requiring a +6 GOP gain to flip control. Republican gains seem to be inevitable but the size is still in doubt.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-may-21-2013 2014 Senate Ratings (May 13, 2013) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-may-13-2013 Mon, 13 May 2013 14:54:18 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 20 Republican: 15

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
AR II D Pryor
LA II D Landrieu
MT II D Open Baucus

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AK II D Begich
NC II D Hagan

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
IA II D Open Harkin

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
MA II D Open Cowan Special
NH II D Shaheen

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 10 Republican: 1
CO II D M. Udall
DE II D Coons
HI III D Schatz
IL II D Durbin
MI II D Open Levin
MN II D Franken
NJ II R Open Chiesa Special
NM II D T. Udall
OR II D Merkley
RI II D Reed
VA II D Warner

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Republican

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
SD II D Open Johnson
WV II D Open Rockefeller

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 2
KY II R McConnell
ME II R Collins

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 12
AL II R Sessions
GA II R Open Chambliss
ID II R Risch
KS II R Roberts
MS II R Cochran
NE II R Open Johanns
OK II R Inhofe
SC II R Graham
SC III R Scott
TN II R Alexander
TX II R Cornyn
WY II R Enzi

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 54-46 majority. But Republicans will likely lose this year’s special election in New Jersey, pushing the Democratic majority back to 55-45 and requiring a +6 GOP gain to flip control. Republican gains seem to be inevitable but the size is still in doubt.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-may-13-2013 2014 House Ratings (May 7, 2013) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/2014-house-ratings-may-7-2013 Wed, 08 May 2013 01:32:45 +0000 Currently Safe Seats
Democrat: 177 Republican: 212

Seats in Play

Democrat: 24 New Seats: 0 Republican: 22

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 1
AZ 2 D Barber
CO 6 R Coffman
NC 7 D McIntyre
UT 4 D Matheson

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 5 Republican: 0
AZ 1 D Kirkpatrick
FL 18 D Murphy
FL 26 D Garcia
NH 1 D Shea-Porter
TX 23 D Gallego

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 8 Republican: 1
CA 31 R Miller ←
CA 36 D Ruiz
CA 52 D Peters →
CA 7 D Bera
GA 12 D Barrow
IL 10 D Schneider →
IL 12 D Enyart
MA 6 D Tierney
NH 2 D Kuster

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 8 Republican: 0
AZ 9 D Sinema
IL 17 D Bustos
MN 7 D Peterson
NY 1 D Bishop
NY 18 D Maloney
NY 21 D Owens
NY 24 D Maffei
WV 3 D Rahall ←

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 5
CA 21 R Valadao
IL 13 R R. Davis
MI 1 R Benishek
NY 19 R Gibson
OH 14 R Joyce

Lean Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 5
FL 2 R Southerland
IN 2 R Walorski
NV 3 R Heck
NY 11 R Grimm
NY 23 R Reed

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 10
CA 10 R Denham
FL 10 R Webster
IA 3 R Latham
MI 11 R Bentivolio
MN 2 R Kline
NE 2 R Terry
OH 7 R Gibbs
PA 12 R Rothfus
PA 8 R Fitzpatrick
WV 2 R Open Capito

House Outlook

Republicans have a 234-201 majority. Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/2014-house-ratings-may-7-2013 2014 Senate Ratings (May 3, 2013) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-may-3-2013 Fri, 03 May 2013 17:56:32 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 20 Republican: 15

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
AR II D Pryor
LA II D Landrieu
MT II D Open Baucus

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AK II D Begich
NC II D Hagan

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
IA II D Open Harkin

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
MA II D Open Cowan Special
NH II D Shaheen

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 10 Republican: 1
CO II D M. Udall
DE II D Coons
HI III D Schatz
IL II D Durbin
MI II D Open Levin
MN II D Franken
NJ II R Open Chiesa Special
NM II D T. Udall
OR II D Merkley
RI II D Reed
VA II D Warner

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Republican

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
SD II D Open Johnson
WV II D Open Rockefeller

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 2
KY II R McConnell
ME II R Collins

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 12
AL II R Sessions
GA II R Open Chambliss
ID II R Risch
KS II R Roberts
MS II R Cochran
NE II R Open Johanns
OK II R Inhofe
SC II R Graham
SC III R Scott
TN II R Alexander
TX II R Cornyn
WY II R Enzi

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 54-46 majority. But Republicans will likely lose this year’s special election in New Jersey, pushing the Democratic majority back to 55-45 and requiring a +6 GOP gain to flip control. Republican gains seem to be inevitable but the size is still in doubt.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-may-3-2013 2014 Senate Ratings (April 23, 2013) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-april-23-2013 Tue, 23 Apr 2013 15:22:51 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 20 Republican: 15

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
AR II D Pryor
LA II D Landrieu
MT II D Open Baucus

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AK II D Begich
NC II D Hagan

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
IA II D Open Harkin

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
MA II D Open Cowan Special
NH II D Shaheen

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 10 Republican: 1
CO II D M. Udall
DE II D Coons
HI III D Schatz
IL II D Durbin
MI II D Open Levin
MN II D Franken
NJ II R Open Chiesa Special
NM II D T. Udall
OR II D Merkley
RI II D Reed
VA II D Warner

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Republican

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
SD II D Open Johnson
WV II D Open Rockefeller

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 2
KY II R McConnell
ME II R Collins

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 12
AL II R Sessions
GA II R Open Chambliss
ID II R Risch
KS II R Roberts
MS II R Cochran
NE II R Open Johanns
OK II R Inhofe
SC II R Graham
SC III R Scott
TN II R Alexander
TX II R Cornyn
WY II R Enzi

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 54-46 majority. But Republicans will likely lose this year’s special election in New Jersey, pushing the Democratic majority back to 55-45 and requiring a +6 GOP gain to flip control. Republican gains seem to be inevitable but the size is still in doubt.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-april-23-2013