The Rothenberg Political Report

2012 House Ratings (May 4, 2012)

Fri, 04 May 2012 17:25:56 +0000

Total Seats in Play

Democrat: 24 Republican: 45

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 7 Republican: 6
AZ	2	D	Open	VACANT Special
CA	7	R		Lungren
CO	6	R		Coffman
IA	3	D		Boswell (D), Latham (R)
IL	11	R		Biggert
IL	12	D	Open	Costello
MN	8	R		Cravaack
NY	1	D		Bishop
NY	19	R		Gibson
NY	21	D		Owens
NY	27	D		Hochul
PA	12	D		Critz/Altmire
TX	23	R		Canseco

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
NH	2	R		Bass
NY	24	R		Buerkle
RI	1	D		Cicilline
WA	1	D	Open	Inslee

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 3 Republican: 3
AZ	1		Open	NEW
CA	24	D		Capps
CA	3	D		Garamendi
CA	31	R		Miller	→
FL	22		Open	NEW
FL	9		Open	NEW
IL	10	R		Dold
IL	17	R		Schilling
MA	6	D		Tierney
NV	4		Open	NEW

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 5 Republican: 2
CA	41		Open
CA	47		Open	NEW
CA	9	D		McNerney
CT	5	D	Open	C.Murphy
IL	8	R		Walsh
KY	6	D		Chandler
MD	6	R		Bartlett
ME	2	D		Michaud
NY	25	D		Slaughter

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 9
CA	26		Open	NEW	→
CA	52	R		Bilbray
CO	3	R		Tipton
FL	18	R		West
IL	13	R	Open	Johnson
NV	3	R		Heck
NY	11	R		Grimm
NY	18	R		Hayworth
OH	16	R		Renacci (R), Sutton (D)
PA	8	R		Fitzpatrick
UT	4	D		Matheson

Lean Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 12
CA	10	R		Denham
CA	21		Open	NEW
FL	2	R		Southerland
FL	26	R		Rivera
IA	4	R		King
MI	1	R		Benishek	←
NC	7	D		McIntyre
NH	1	R		Guinta
NJ	3	R		Runyan
NY	22	R		Hanna
OH	6	R		Johnson
OH	7	R		Gibbs
VA	2	R		Rigell
WI	7	R		Duffy

Republican Favored

Democrat: 5 Republican: 11
AR	1	R		Crawford
CA	36	R		Bono Mack
FL	10	R		Webster
FL	16	R		Buchanan
GA	12	D		Barrow
IN	2	D	Open	Donnelly
IN	8	R		Bucschon
MT	1	R	Open	Rehberg
NC	11	D	Open	Shuler
NC	8	D		Kissell
ND	1	R	Open	Berg
NY	2	R		King
OK	2	D	Open	Boren
PA	6	R		Gerlach
PA	7	R		Meehan
WI	8	R		Ribble

House Outlook

Republicans have a 242-190 majority (3 Democratic vacancies). A Democratic gain in the single digits is most likely. They need a net gain of 25 seats for a majority.

2012 Senate Ratings (May 4, 2012)

Fri, 04 May 2012 17:24:40 +0000

Total Seats in Play

Democrat: 23 Republican: 10

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
MA	I	R		Brown
MT	I	D		Tester
NV	I	R		Heller
VA	I	D	Open	Webb

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
NM	I	D	Open	Bingaman
OH	I	D		Brown
WI	I	D	Open	Kohl

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 1
FL	I	D		Nelson
HI	I	D	Open	Akaka
ME	I	R	Open	Snowe

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
MI	I	D		Stabenow

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 12 Republican: 0
CA	I	D		Feinstein
CT	I	D	Open	Lieberman
DE	I	D		Carper
MD	I	D		Cardin
MN	I	D		Klobuchar
NJ	I	D		Menendez
NY	I	D		Gillibrand
PA	I	D		Casey
RI	I	D		Whitehouse
VT	I	D		Sanders
WA	I	D		Cantwell
WV	I	D		Manchin

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
MO	I	D		McCaskill

Lean Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 2
AZ	I	R	Open	Kyl
IN	I	R		Lugar	←
ND	I	D	Open	Conrad

Republican Favored

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
NE	I	D	Open	Nelson

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 5
MS	I	R		Wicker
TN	I	R		Corker
TX	I	R	Open	Hutchison
UT	I	R		Hatch
WY	I	R		Barrasso

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 53-47 majority. Republican gains of 2-5 seats likely at this point. Republicans need 4 seats for a majority if President Obama wins re-election.

2012 House Ratings (April 20, 2012)

Fri, 20 Apr 2012 15:54:17 +0000

Total Seats in Play

Democrat: 24 Republican: 45

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 7 Republican: 6
AZ	2	D	Open	VACANT Special
CA	7	R		Lungren
CO	6	R		Coffman
IA	3	D		Boswell (D), Latham (R)
IL	11	R		Biggert
IL	12	D	Open	Costello
MN	8	R		Cravaack
NY	1	D		Bishop
NY	19	R		Gibson
NY	21	D		Owens
NY	27	D		Hochul
PA	12	D		Critz/Altmire
TX	23	R		Canseco

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
NH	2	R		Bass
NY	24	R		Buerkle
RI	1	D		Cicilline
WA	1	D	Open	Inslee

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 3 Republican: 3
AZ	1		Open	NEW
CA	24	D		Capps
CA	3	D		Garamendi
CA	31	R		Miller	→
FL	22		Open	NEW
FL	9		Open	NEW
IL	10	R		Dold
IL	17	R		Schilling
MA	6	D		Tierney
NV	4		Open	NEW

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 5 Republican: 2
CA	41		Open
CA	47		Open	NEW
CA	9	D		McNerney
CT	5	D	Open	C.Murphy
IL	8	R		Walsh
KY	6	D		Chandler
MD	6	R		Bartlett
ME	2	D		Michaud
NY	25	D		Slaughter

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 9
CA	26		Open	NEW	→
CA	52	R		Bilbray
CO	3	R		Tipton
FL	18	R		West
IL	13	R	Open	Johnson
NV	3	R		Heck
NY	11	R		Grimm
NY	18	R		Hayworth
OH	16	R		Renacci (R), Sutton (D)
PA	8	R		Fitzpatrick
UT	4	D		Matheson

Lean Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 12
CA	10	R		Denham
CA	21		Open	NEW
FL	2	R		Southerland
FL	26	R		Rivera
IA	4	R		King
MI	1	R		Benishek	←
NC	7	D		McIntyre
NH	1	R		Guinta
NJ	3	R		Runyan
NY	22	R		Hanna
OH	6	R		Johnson
OH	7	R		Gibbs
VA	2	R		Rigell
WI	7	R		Duffy

Republican Favored

Democrat: 5 Republican: 11
AR	1	R		Crawford
CA	36	R		Bono Mack
FL	10	R		Webster
FL	16	R		Buchanan
GA	12	D		Barrow
IN	2	D	Open	Donnelly
IN	8	R		Bucschon
MT	1	R	Open	Rehberg
NC	11	D	Open	Shuler
NC	8	D		Kissell
ND	1	R	Open	Berg
NY	2	R		King
OK	2	D	Open	Boren
PA	6	R		Gerlach
PA	7	R		Meehan
WI	8	R		Ribble

House Outlook

Republicans have a 242-190 majority (3 Democratic vacancies). A Democratic gain in the single digits is most likely. They need a net gain of 25 seats for a majority.

2012 Senate Ratings (April 20, 2012)

Fri, 20 Apr 2012 15:53:51 +0000

Total Seats in Play

Democrat: 23 Republican: 10

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
MA	I	R		Brown
MT	I	D		Tester
NV	I	R		Heller
VA	I	D	Open	Webb

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
NM	I	D	Open	Bingaman
OH	I	D		Brown
WI	I	D	Open	Kohl

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 1
FL	I	D		Nelson
HI	I	D	Open	Akaka
ME	I	R	Open	Snowe

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
MI	I	D		Stabenow

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 12 Republican: 0
CA	I	D		Feinstein
CT	I	D	Open	Lieberman
DE	I	D		Carper
MD	I	D		Cardin
MN	I	D		Klobuchar
NJ	I	D		Menendez
NY	I	D		Gillibrand
PA	I	D		Casey
RI	I	D		Whitehouse
VT	I	D		Sanders
WA	I	D		Cantwell
WV	I	D		Manchin

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
MO	I	D		McCaskill

Lean Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 2
AZ	I	R	Open	Kyl
IN	I	R		Lugar	←
ND	I	D	Open	Conrad

Republican Favored

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
NE	I	D	Open	Nelson

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 5
MS	I	R		Wicker
TN	I	R		Corker
TX	I	R	Open	Hutchison
UT	I	R		Hatch
WY	I	R		Barrasso

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 53-47 majority. Republican gains of 2-5 seats likely at this point. Republicans need 4 seats for a majority if President Obama wins re-election.

2012 House Ratings April 6, 2012)

Fri, 06 Apr 2012 18:56:37 +0000

Total Seats in Play

Democrat: 24 Republican: 45

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 7 Republican: 6
AZ	2	D	Open	VACANT Special
CA	7	R		Lungren
CO	6	R		Coffman
IA	3	D		Boswell (D), Latham (R)
IL	11	R		Biggert
IL	12	D	Open	Costello
MN	8	R		Cravaack
NY	1	D		Bishop
NY	19	R		Gibson
NY	21	D		Owens
NY	27	D		Hochul
PA	12	D		Critz/Altmire
TX	23	R		Canseco

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
NH	2	R		Bass
NY	24	R		Buerkle
RI	1	D		Cicilline
WA	1	D	Open	Inslee

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 3 Republican: 3
AZ	1		Open	NEW
CA	24	D		Capps
CA	3	D		Garamendi
CA	31	R		Miller	→
FL	22		Open	NEW
FL	9		Open	NEW
IL	10	R		Dold
IL	17	R		Schilling
MA	6	D		Tierney
NV	4		Open	NEW

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 5 Republican: 2
CA	41		Open
CA	47		Open	NEW
CA	9	D		McNerney
CT	5	D	Open	C.Murphy
IL	8	R		Walsh
KY	6	D		Chandler
MD	6	R		Bartlett
ME	2	D		Michaud
NY	25	D		Slaughter

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 9
CA	26		Open	NEW	→
CA	52	R		Bilbray
CO	3	R		Tipton
FL	18	R		West
IL	13	R	Open	Johnson
NV	3	R		Heck
NY	11	R		Grimm
NY	18	R		Hayworth
OH	16	R		Renacci (R), Sutton (D)
PA	8	R		Fitzpatrick
UT	4	D		Matheson

Lean Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 12
CA	10	R		Denham
CA	21		Open	NEW
FL	2	R		Southerland
FL	26	R		Rivera
IA	4	R		King
MI	1	R		Benishek	←
NC	7	D		McIntyre
NH	1	R		Guinta
NJ	3	R		Runyan
NY	22	R		Hanna
OH	6	R		Johnson
OH	7	R		Gibbs
VA	2	R		Rigell
WI	7	R		Duffy

Republican Favored

Democrat: 5 Republican: 11
AR	1	R		Crawford
CA	36	R		Bono Mack
FL	10	R		Webster
FL	16	R		Buchanan
GA	12	D		Barrow
IN	2	D	Open	Donnelly
IN	8	R		Bucschon
MT	1	R	Open	Rehberg
NC	11	D	Open	Shuler
NC	8	D		Kissell
ND	1	R	Open	Berg
NY	2	R		King
OK	2	D	Open	Boren
PA	6	R		Gerlach
PA	7	R		Meehan
WI	8	R		Ribble

House Outlook

Republicans have a 242-190 majority (3 Democratic vacancies). A Democratic gain in the single digits is most likely. They need a net gain of 25 seats for a majority.

2012 RPR Electoral Vote Estimate (April 6, 2012) Romney vs. Obama

Fri, 06 Apr 2012 18:55:41 +0000

2012 Senate Ratings (March 23, 2012)

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 18:57:30 +0000

Total Seats in Play

Democrat: 23 Republican: 10

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
MA	I	R		Brown
MT	I	D		Tester
NV	I	R		Heller
VA	I	D	Open	Webb

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
NM	I	D	Open	Bingaman
OH	I	D		Brown
WI	I	D	Open	Kohl

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 1
FL	I	D		Nelson
HI	I	D	Open	Akaka
ME	I	R	Open	Snowe

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
MI	I	D		Stabenow

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 12 Republican: 0
CA	I	D		Feinstein
CT	I	D	Open	Lieberman
DE	I	D		Carper
MD	I	D		Cardin
MN	I	D		Klobuchar
NJ	I	D		Menendez
NY	I	D		Gillibrand
PA	I	D		Casey
RI	I	D		Whitehouse
VT	I	D		Sanders
WA	I	D		Cantwell
WV	I	D		Manchin

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
MO	I	D		McCaskill

Lean Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 2
AZ	I	R	Open	Kyl
IN	I	R		Lugar	←
ND	I	D	Open	Conrad

Republican Favored

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
NE	I	D	Open	Nelson

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 5
MS	I	R		Wicker
TN	I	R		Corker
TX	I	R	Open	Hutchison
UT	I	R		Hatch
WY	I	R		Barrasso

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 53-47 majority. Republican gains of 2-5 seats likely at this point. Republicans need 4 seats for a majority if President Obama wins re-election.

2012 Gubernatorial Ratings (March 23, 2012)

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 18:56:52 +0000

Total Seats in Play

Democrat: 8 Republican: 4

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 1
MT	D	Open	Schweitzer
NH	D	Open	Lynch
WA	D	Open	Gregoire
WI	R	Open	Walker Special	←

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
MO	D		Nixon
WV	D		Tomblin

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
DE	D		Markell
VT	D		Shumlin

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 1
IN	R	Open	Daniels
NC	D	Open	Perdue

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 2
ND	R		Dalrymple
UT	R		Herbert

Governor Outlook

Republicans currently control 29 governorships to Democrats’ 20 and 1 Independent (Chafee). Republicans are likely to gain governorships.

2012 House Ratings (March 23, 2012)

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 18:55:30 +0000

Total Seats in Play

Democrat: 24 Republican: 45

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 7 Republican: 6
AZ	2	D	Open	VACANT Special
CA	7	R		Lungren
CO	6	R		Coffman
IA	3	D		Boswell (D), Latham (R)
IL	11	R		Biggert
IL	12	D	Open	Costello
MN	8	R		Cravaack
NY	1	D		Bishop
NY	19	R		Gibson
NY	21	D		Owens
NY	27	D		Hochul
PA	12	D		Critz/Altmire
TX	23	R		Canseco

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
NH	2	R		Bass
NY	24	R		Buerkle
RI	1	D		Cicilline
WA	1	D	Open	Inslee

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 3 Republican: 3
AZ	1		Open	NEW
CA	24	D		Capps
CA	3	D		Garamendi
CA	31	R		Miller	→
FL	22		Open	NEW
FL	9		Open	NEW
IL	10	R		Dold
IL	17	R		Schilling
MA	6	D		Tierney
NV	4		Open	NEW

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 5 Republican: 2
CA	41		Open
CA	47		Open	NEW
CA	9	D		McNerney
CT	5	D	Open	C.Murphy
IL	8	R		Walsh
KY	6	D		Chandler
MD	6	R		Bartlett
ME	2	D		Michaud
NY	25	D		Slaughter

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 9
CA	26		Open	NEW	→
CA	52	R		Bilbray
CO	3	R		Tipton
FL	18	R		West
IL	13	R	Open	Johnson
NV	3	R		Heck
NY	11	R		Grimm
NY	18	R		Hayworth
OH	16	R		Renacci (R), Sutton (D)
PA	8	R		Fitzpatrick
UT	4	D		Matheson

Lean Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 12
CA	10	R		Denham
CA	21		Open	NEW
FL	2	R		Southerland
FL	26	R		Rivera
IA	4	R		King
MI	1	R		Benishek	←
NC	7	D		McIntyre
NH	1	R		Guinta
NJ	3	R		Runyan
NY	22	R		Hanna
OH	6	R		Johnson
OH	7	R		Gibbs
VA	2	R		Rigell
WI	7	R		Duffy

Republican Favored

Democrat: 5 Republican: 11
AR	1	R		Crawford
CA	36	R		Bono Mack
FL	10	R		Webster
FL	16	R		Buchanan
GA	12	D		Barrow
IN	2	D	Open	Donnelly
IN	8	R		Bucschon
MT	1	R	Open	Rehberg
NC	11	D	Open	Shuler
NC	8	D		Kissell
ND	1	R	Open	Berg
NY	2	R		King
OK	2	D	Open	Boren
PA	6	R		Gerlach
PA	7	R		Meehan
WI	8	R		Ribble

House Outlook

Republicans have a 242-190 majority (3 Democratic vacancies). A Democratic gain in the single digits is most likely. They need a net gain of 25 seats for a majority.

2012 House Ratings (March 9, 2012)

Fri, 09 Mar 2012 18:57:53 +0000

Total Seats in Play

Democrat: 24 Republican: 45

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 7 Republican: 6
AZ	2	D	Open	VACANT Special
CA	7	R		Lungren
CO	6	R		Coffman
IA	3	D		Boswell (D), Latham (R)
IL	11	R		Biggert
IL	12	D	Open	Costello
MN	8	R		Cravaack
NY	1	D		Bishop
NY	19	R		Gibson
NY	21	D		Owens
NY	27	D		Hochul
PA	12	D		Critz/Altmire
TX	23	R		Canseco

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
NH	2	R		Bass
NY	24	R		Buerkle
RI	1	D		Cicilline
WA	1	D	Open	Inslee

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 3 Republican: 3
AZ	1		Open	NEW
CA	24	D		Capps
CA	3	D		Garamendi
CA	31	R		Miller	→
FL	22		Open	NEW
FL	9		Open	NEW
IL	10	R		Dold
IL	17	R		Schilling
MA	6	D		Tierney
NV	4		Open	NEW

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 5 Republican: 2
CA	41		Open
CA	47		Open	NEW
CA	9	D		McNerney
CT	5	D	Open	C.Murphy
IL	8	R		Walsh
KY	6	D		Chandler
MD	6	R		Bartlett
ME	2	D		Michaud
NY	25	D		Slaughter

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 9
CA	26		Open	NEW	→
CA	52	R		Bilbray
CO	3	R		Tipton
FL	18	R		West
IL	13	R	Open	Johnson
NV	3	R		Heck
NY	11	R		Grimm
NY	18	R		Hayworth
OH	16	R		Renacci (R), Sutton (D)
PA	8	R		Fitzpatrick
UT	4	D		Matheson

Lean Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 12
CA	10	R		Denham
CA	21		Open	NEW
FL	2	R		Southerland
FL	26	R		Rivera
IA	4	R		King
MI	1	R		Benishek	←
NC	7	D		McIntyre
NH	1	R		Guinta
NJ	3	R		Runyan
NY	22	R		Hanna
OH	6	R		Johnson
OH	7	R		Gibbs
VA	2	R		Rigell
WI	7	R		Duffy

Republican Favored

Democrat: 5 Republican: 11
AR	1	R		Crawford
CA	36	R		Bono Mack
FL	10	R		Webster
FL	16	R		Buchanan
GA	12	D		Barrow
IN	2	D	Open	Donnelly
IN	8	R		Bucschon
MT	1	R	Open	Rehberg
NC	11	D	Open	Shuler
NC	8	D		Kissell
ND	1	R	Open	Berg
NY	2	R		King
OK	2	D	Open	Boren
PA	6	R		Gerlach
PA	7	R		Meehan
WI	8	R		Ribble

House Outlook

Republicans have a 242-190 majority (3 Democratic vacancies). A Democratic gain in the single digits is most likely. They need a net gain of 25 seats for a majority.