The Rothenberg Political Report http://www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ The Rothenberg Political Report is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments. Stuart Rothenberg Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:55:37 +0000 en Copyright 2012 2012 RPR Electoral Vote Estimate (January 27, 2012) Romney vs. Obama http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/president/2012-rpr-electoral-vote-estimate-january-27-2012-romney-vs-obama Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:59:21 +0000 http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/president/2012-rpr-electoral-vote-estimate-january-27-2012-romney-vs-obama 2012 RPR Electoral Vote Estimate (January 27, 2011) Gingrich vs. Obama http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/president/2012-rpr-electoral-vote-estimate-january-27-2011-gingrich-vs-obama Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:58:00 +0000 http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/president/2012-rpr-electoral-vote-estimate-january-27-2011-gingrich-vs-obama 2012 House Ratings (January 27, 2012) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/2012-house-ratings-january-27-2012 Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:57:00 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 20 Republican: 34

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 4 Republican: 5
AZ 2 D Open VACANT Special
CA 21 Open NEW
CA 7 R Lungren
CO 6 R Coffman
IA 3 D Boswell (D), Latham (R)
IL 11 R Biggert
IL 12 D Open Costello
IL 13 R Johnson
PA 12 D Critz/Altmire
TX 23 R Canseco

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
WA 1 D Open Inslee

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 4 Republican: 2
AZ 1 Open NEW
CA 24 D Capps
CA 3 D Garamendi
IL 10 R Dold
IL 8 R Walsh
NM 1 D Open Heinrich
NV 4 Open NEW
RI 1 D Cicilline

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 3 Republican: 3
CA 26 Open NEW
CA 31 R Miller
CA 41 Open
CA 47 Open NEW
CA 9 D McNerney
IL 17 R Schilling
MA 6 D Tierney
MD 6 R Bartlett
OR 1 D Open VACANT Special
WA 1 Open NEW

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 5
CA 52 R Bilbray
CO 3 R Tipton
NV 3 R Heck
PA 7 R Meehan
PA 8 R Fitzpatrick
UT 4 D Matheson

Lean Republican

Democrat: 3 Republican: 7
AR 4 D Open Ross
CA 10 R Denham
IA 4 R King
NC 11 D Shuler
NC 7 D McIntyre
OH 16 R Renacci/Sutton
OH 6 R Johnson
OH 7 R Gibbs
VA 2 R Rigell
WI 7 R Duffy

Republican Favored

Democrat: 4 Republican: 12
AR 1 R Crawford
AR 2 R Griffin
CA 36 R Bono Mack
GA 12 D Barrow
IN 2 D Open Donnelly
IN 8 R Bucschon
MI 1 R Benishek
MO 2 R Open Akin/Carnahan
MT 1 R Open Rehberg
NC 8 D Kissell
ND 1 R Open Berg
NJ 5 R Garrett
OK 2 D Open Boren
PA 6 R Gerlach
WA 3 R Herrera Beutler
WV 1 R McKinley

House Outlook

Republicans have a 242-192 majority (1 Democratic vacancy). Democrats are projected to gain between 5-12 seats. They need a net gain of 25 seats for a majority. NOTE: We have only rated races in states that have completed the redistricting process.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/2012-house-ratings-january-27-2012 2012 Senate Ratings (January 27, 2012) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2012-senate-ratings-january-27-2012 Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:56:20 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 23 Republican: 10

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 2
MA I R Brown
MO I D McCaskill
MT I D Tester
NV I R Heller
VA I D Open Webb

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 4 Republican: 0
FL I D Nelson
NM I D Open Bingaman
OH I D Brown
WI I D Open Kohl

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
HI I D Open Akaka

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
MI I D Stabenow

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 12 Republican: 0
CA I D Feinstein
CT I D Open Lieberman
DE I D Carper
MD I D Cardin
MN I D Klobuchar
NJ I D Menendez
NY I D Gillibrand
PA I D Casey
RI I D Whitehouse
VT I D Sanders
WA I D Cantwell
WV I D Manchin

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Republican Favored

Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
AZ I R Open Kyl
IN I R Lugar
ND I D Open Conrad
NE I D Open Nelson

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 6
ME I R Snowe
MS I R Wicker
TN I R Corker
TX I R Open Hutchison
UT I R Hatch
WY I R Barrasso

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 53-47 majority. Republican gains of 2-5 seats likely at this point. Republicans need 4 seats for a majority if President Obama wins re-election.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2012-senate-ratings-january-27-2012 2012 Gubernatorial Ratings (January 27, 2012) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/governor/2012-gubernatorial-ratings-january-27-2012 Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:55:37 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 8 Republican: 3

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
MT D Open Schweitzer
NH D Open Lynch

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
WA D Open Gregoire

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
MO D Nixon
WV D Tomblin

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
DE D Markell
VT D Shumlin

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 1
IN R Open Daniels
NC D Open Perdue

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 2
ND R Dalrymple
UT R Herbert

Governor Outlook

Republicans currently control 29 governorships to Democrats’ 20 and 1 Independent (Chafee). Republicans are likely to gain governorships.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/governor/2012-gubernatorial-ratings-january-27-2012 2012 House Ratings (January 13, 2012) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/2012-house-ratings-january-13-2012 Fri, 13 Jan 2012 15:56:22 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 20 Republican: 34

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 4 Republican: 5
AZ 2 D Open VACANT Special
CA 21 Open NEW
CA 7 R Lungren
CO 6 R Coffman
IA 3 D Boswell (D), Latham (R)
IL 11 R Biggert
IL 12 D Open Costello
IL 13 R Johnson
PA 12 D Critz/Altmire
TX 23 R Canseco

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
WA 1 D Open Inslee

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 4 Republican: 2
AZ 1 Open NEW
CA 24 D Capps
CA 3 D Garamendi
IL 10 R Dold
IL 8 R Walsh
NM 1 D Open Heinrich
NV 4 Open NEW
RI 1 D Cicilline

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 3 Republican: 3
CA 26 Open NEW
CA 31 R Miller
CA 41 Open
CA 47 Open NEW
CA 9 D McNerney
IL 17 R Schilling
MA 6 D Tierney
MD 6 R Bartlett
OR 1 D Open VACANT Special
WA 1 Open NEW

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 5
CA 52 R Bilbray
CO 3 R Tipton
NV 3 R Heck
PA 7 R Meehan
PA 8 R Fitzpatrick
UT 4 D Matheson

Lean Republican

Democrat: 3 Republican: 7
AR 4 D Open Ross
CA 10 R Denham
IA 4 R King
NC 11 D Shuler
NC 7 D McIntyre
OH 16 R Renacci/Sutton
OH 6 R Johnson
OH 7 R Gibbs
VA 2 R Rigell
WI 7 R Duffy

Republican Favored

Democrat: 4 Republican: 12
AR 1 R Crawford
AR 2 R Griffin
CA 36 R Bono Mack
GA 12 D Barrow
IN 2 D Open Donnelly
IN 8 R Bucschon
MI 1 R Benishek
MO 2 R Open Akin/Carnahan
MT 1 R Open Rehberg
NC 8 D Kissell
ND 1 R Open Berg
NJ 5 R Garrett
OK 2 D Open Boren
PA 6 R Gerlach
WA 3 R Herrera Beutler
WV 1 R McKinley

House Outlook

Republicans have a 242-192 majority (1 Democratic vacancy). Democrats are projected to gain between 5-12 seats. They need a net gain of 25 seats for a majority. NOTE: We have only rated races in states that have completed the redistricting process.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/2012-house-ratings-january-13-2012 2012 RPR Electoral Vote Estimate (January 13, 2012) Romney vs. Obama http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/president/2012-rpr-electoral-vote-estimate-january-13-2012-romney-vs-obama Fri, 13 Jan 2012 15:55:44 +0000 http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/president/2012-rpr-electoral-vote-estimate-january-13-2012-romney-vs-obama 2012 Senate Ratings (January 13, 2012) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2012-senate-ratings-january-13-2012 Fri, 13 Jan 2012 15:54:28 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 23 Republican: 10

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 2
MA I R Brown
MO I D McCaskill
MT I D Tester
NV I R Heller
VA I D Open Webb

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 4 Republican: 0
FL I D Nelson
NM I D Open Bingaman
OH I D Brown
WI I D Open Kohl

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
HI I D Open Akaka

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
MI I D Stabenow

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 12 Republican: 0
CA I D Feinstein
CT I D Open Lieberman
DE I D Carper
MD I D Cardin
MN I D Klobuchar
NJ I D Menendez
NY I D Gillibrand
PA I D Casey
RI I D Whitehouse
VT I D Sanders
WA I D Cantwell
WV I D Manchin

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Republican Favored

Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
AZ I R Open Kyl
IN I R Lugar
ND I D Open Conrad
NE I D Open Nelson

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 6
ME I R Snowe
MS I R Wicker
TN I R Corker
TX I R Open Hutchison
UT I R Hatch
WY I R Barrasso

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 53-47 majority. Republican gains of 2-5 seats likely at this point. Republicans need 4 seats for a majority if President Obama wins re-election.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2012-senate-ratings-january-13-2012 2012 Senate Ratings (December 27, 2011) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2012-senate-ratings-december-27-2011 Tue, 27 Dec 2011 22:24:46 +0000 Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 23 Republican: 10

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 3 Republican: 2
MA I R Brown
MO I D McCaskill
MT I D Tester
NV I R Heller
VA I D Open Webb

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 4 Republican: 0
FL I D Nelson
NM I D Open Bingaman
OH I D Brown
WI I D Open Kohl

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
HI I D Open Akaka

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
MI I D Stabenow

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 12 Republican: 0
CA I D Feinstein
CT I D Open Lieberman
DE I D Carper
MD I D Cardin
MN I D Klobuchar
NJ I D Menendez
NY I D Gillibrand
PA I D Casey
RI I D Whitehouse
VT I D Sanders
WA I D Cantwell
WV I D Manchin

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Lean Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Republican Favored

Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
AZ I R Open Kyl
IN I R Lugar
ND I D Open Conrad
NE I D Open Nelson

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 6
ME I R Snowe
MS I R Wicker
TN I R Corker
TX I R Open Hutchison
UT I R Hatch
WY I R Barrasso

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 53-47 majority. Republican gains of 2-5 seats likely at this point. Republicans need 4 seats for a majority if President Obama wins re-election.

]]> http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate/2012-senate-ratings-december-27-2011 2012 RPR Electoral Vote Estimate (December 16, 2011) Romney vs. Obama http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/president/2012-rpr-electoral-vote-estimate-december-16-2011-romney-vs-obama Fri, 16 Dec 2011 19:57:13 +0000 http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/president/2012-rpr-electoral-vote-estimate-december-16-2011-romney-vs-obama