September 22, 2003
...on Hillary 2004?
For what seems like the thousandth time (either directly or through a spokesman), Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) has indicated that she will not be a candidate for her party's Presidential nomination in 2004.
Yet the buzz continues that Senator Clinton may run, and some are even buying a bizarre, Machiavellian scenario that Wesley Clark is somehow a placeholder for her.
At some point, you simply have to take Clinton on her word. And you have to wonder about those media types - and that includes columnists with a twinkle in their eye, talk show hosts and TV bookers - who repeat the Clark/Clinton scenario that has former President Bill Clinton and his one-time aides persuading Clark to enter the race to stop Howard Dean's momentum and freeze the race so that she can jump in later.
Enough already. Exactly what is it about the word "no" that some reporters and commentators don't understand?
Not only has the senator pledged to finish out her current term, but she wisely understands that she needs a few more years in office to build the kind of resume to strengthen her for a White House bid.
Jumping into the race in October or November (assuming Bush looks even more vulnerable then) would look like political opportunism - something that wouldn't help the senator's general election prospects. And if the senator does want to enter the race over the next few weeks, she wouldn't need Wesley Clark's help.
Suggestions that Clinton's calculations have to change now that President Bush looks vulnerable ignore the obvious: all decisions assume some risk, and the extreme vulnerability of the Republicans in 2008 (after a potential eight years of GOP control of the White House) continues to overshadow any Bush vulnerability next year.
Yes, Senator Clinton could win the Democratic nomination if she were to enter the race. But she'd be better off in the general election by waiting.
Anything is possible in the world of politics, and plenty of elected officials have changed their mind. But that doesn't mean that we have to dwell on the unlikely forever or make up elaborate, convoluted scenarios to explain something that, right now, we have absolutely no reason to believe will take place.
...on Alaska Senate.
Former state Sen. Johne Binkley, the chairman of the board of the Alaska Railroad and a top fund raiser in Alaska for President George W. Bush's reelection, has removed himself from consideration as a possible primary challenger to appointed Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). His decision is noteworthy, since he was regarded as the most serious threat to the senator. Some social conservatives in the state are still hoping to recruit a strong primary opponent against her, but Binkley's decision is a blow to GOP critics of the senator.
Former Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin and former state Sen. Jerry Ward are still considering the race. Ward lost his bid for reelection last year, while Palin ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor in 2002.
The likely Democratic nominee, former Governor Tony Knowles, will be a formidable candidate. And a nasty, divisive GOP primary that forces Murkowski to the right - or raises questions about her preparedness for higher office - could enhance Knowles's appeal. A Binkley run would have drained resources from Murkowski and limited her options for the general election.
The Senator still faces a difficult race, but Binkley's decision boosts her prospects.