September 2, 2004
Virginia 2: Another Late GOP Open
Republican Cong. Ed Schrock abruptly announced on Monday night that he would not seek a third-term in Congress. The decision came soon after information posted on a Web site questioned the congressman's sexuality. Schrock announced his decision via press release, without directly addressing the allegations, and left the Republicans with a late open seat.
On Tuesday night, Republicans chose state Delegate Thelma Drake to replace Schrock on the November ballot. The Democratic nominee was and is attorney and Iraq war veteran David Ashe.
Virginia's 2nd District leans Republican, but the race is worth taking a glance at because it is an open seat, unfolding very late in the campaign.
The Lay of the Land
Schrock, 63, was first elected in 2000, 52%-48% over well-funded securities lawyer Jody Wagner (D) to fill an open seat vacated by seven-term Cong. Owen Pickett (D). Prior to his election to Congress, Schrock served in the Navy, retiring as a captain in 1988, and in the state senate.
The Republican was promptly named to the Armed Services Committee as a freshman. The 2nd District is home to Norfolk Naval Air Base, the world's largest navy base, as well as Pat Robertson's Regent University and Christian Broadcast Network. In 2002, Schrock easily won reelection without Democratic opposition, but the district is more competitive than that.
In the 2000 presidential election, George W. Bush defeated Al Gore 55%-43%. The 2nd District would have given Bush a narrower 53%, but the GOP performance increased by about two points after redistricting. Also in 2000, former GOP Gov. George Allen defeated incumbent Sen. Chuck Robb (D) in the district 53%-47%; close to their statewide totals.
Gov. Mark Warner (D) narrowly lost the district 51%-49% in his successful gubernatorial bid in 2001. But the Democratic performance in the district is about 42%, according to the National Committee for an Effective Congress.
In 1999, Republican state senate candidates in the district took 86% of the vote and GOP state House candidates 69%. According to Congressional Quarterly, Republicans hold all state legislative seats in Virginia Beach. Virginia Beach (population 425,257) makes up almost two-thirds of the district, along with about half of Norfolk (112,102), which is about 18% of the district's vote. The 2nd District also takes in Hampton, Accomack, and Northampton counties.
The Candidates
David Ashe was born in Norfolk in 1968 and grew up in Virginia Beach. He graduated from Virginia Tech in 1994 and began law school. While in law school he completed Marine Corps officer candidate school and was later commissioned as a second lieutenant.
Ashe served as an attorney for the Marine Corps, stationed at the Pentagon and Camp Pendleton in California. He was recalled to active duty two weeks after September 11. Ashe served in Kuwait and then Iraq. He left active duty again a year ago. This is his first run for office.
Ashe has hired on David Petts to conduct polling and Tom Oppel to handle media. The Democrat raised $116,476 for his bid through June 30 and finished the second quarter with $55,153 on hand. His totals include $19,000 from his own pocket. Schrock showed $752,132 in the bank at the end of June.
The new Republican nominee is Thelma Drake. Drake, 54, has served as a state delegate since 1996. The realtor currently represents part of Norfolk, with portions of her legislative district in both the 2nd Congressional district as well as the neighboring 3rd C.D.
How It Plays Out
Republicans could have done without another open seat to defend, but it remains to be seen if this race will develop into a headache for Schrock's party. By the numbers, the district leans Republican but the open seat deserves at least a glance.
Democrats familiar with the race maintain that the 2nd District behaves more like Northern Virginia, culturally moderate, and is ripe for the taking with Ashe's military background in a district heavily dependent on the Navy. One Democrat also notes that 2004 is much different than the 2000 open seat race when Bush was running well and Schrock ran successfully with his military background and state senate base.
But while in Congress, Schrock was a reliable conservative vote, earning 100% ratings with both the U.S. Chamber and the American Conservative Union. He also voted with his party over 96% of the time and supported Bush over 90%. Indeed, it is the culturally conservative nature of the district that many observers believed would hurt Schrock with questions surrounding his sexuality.
Drake also comes from Norfolk, one of the more Democratic areas of the district. Bush won that area only 50%-48% in 2000 while winning Virginia Beach by a wider 56%-42% margin.
The next couple weeks will be sprint by both candidates for money. Both Drake and Ashe will be aiming to ramp up their campaigns, but Ashe's task is more difficult based on the numbers. Democrats will go after Drake's voting record in the legislature while Republicans are likely to portray Ashe as a liberal Democrat. According to his Web site, Ashe opposes a proposed amendment to the United States Constitution defining marriage as between a man and a woman. Cong. Schrock was co-sponsor of a similar bill.
This contest is worth watching because it is an open seat. But it remains to be seen if it will become a prime opportunity for Democrats.
By Nathan L. Gonzales