October 27, 2003
...on Georgia Senate.
Attorney Michelle Nunn's decision not to seek the Democratic Senate nomination in Georgia puts the Democrats back to the drawing board in the state. The party could still take another run at state Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond or Cong. Jim Marshall, but the Democrats' chances of retaining retiring Sen. Zell Miller's seat certainly are fading.
...on Senate primaries. Where are the internal fights?
The Democrats have avoided a number of potentially draining Senate primaries, thereby increasing their general election chances. But in this case, the GOP primaries in two states, Georgia and South Carolina, reflect the value of the Republican nominations - and the party's advantage in both states.
States with very competitive Democratic or GOP Senate primaries:
Illinois: both Republican and Democratic contests.
South Carolina: Republican primary.
Georgia: Republican primary.
Pennsylvania: Republican primary (including incumbent).
Florida: both Republican and Democratic primaries, IF SEAT IS OPEN.
Wisconsin: Republican primary.
States where at least one party has avoided a competitive primary:
Oklahoma: Democratic and Republican primaries avoided.
North Carolina: Democratic and Republican primaries avoided.
South Carolina: Democratic primary avoided.
Alaska: Republican primary avoided.
...on Governors Races Down to the Wire.
Kentucky, November 4. Cong. Ernie Fletcher (R) continues to hold a narrow advantage over Attorney General Ben Chandler (D) in the Kentucky governor's race. Fletcher's big media advantage (which includes heavy spending from the Republican Governors' Association) has made it difficult for the Democratic nominee to overtake Fletcher. Chandler is trying to position himself as a vehicle for change in the state, but Fletcher so far has had the better of that argument. The Republican has an edge.
Mississippi, November 4. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove continues to fight former RNC Chairman Haley Barbour in the state's gubernatorial contest. Both men have proved to be non-stop campaigners, and Musgrove has scored points by painting the GOP challenger as a lobbyist and Washington insider. By any measure, this race remains a pure toss-up.
Louisiana, November 15. Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco and Republican Bobby Jindal are also locked in a tight race. One early poll showed Blanco ahead, while another had Jindal up. More recent surveys seem to show Jindal with some momentum.
Blanco needs a bigger black and liberal turnout than she is now getting, while Jindal needs a good Republican turnout, as well as a strong showing among white voters in the northern half of the state. It's probably easier for Blanco than for Jindal to put together a majority of the vote, but like Mississippi, this race is far too close to call.