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Republicans Ready to Add to House Majority

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Nathan L. Gonzales September 24, 2014 · 4:58 PM EDT

Republicans are likely to gain seats in the House this November, we just don’t know how many quite yet.

President Barack Obama’s job approval numbers continue to decline in a midterm election when voters will likely be open to a check-and-balance argument from Republicans. And the Democratic…

2014 House Ratings (September 24, 2014)

September 24, 2014 · 4:56 PM EDT

The Amazingly Static House Playing Field

Nathan L. Gonzales September 19, 2014 · 9:37 AM EDT

After a year of campaigning, television ads, a government shutdown, and a botched rollout of HealthCare.gov, the House playing field is virtually unchanged from where it was 12 months ago.

We recently updated the Rothenberg Political Report ratings in seven House districts. Arizona’s 1st…

The Republican Brand’s Recovery Tour — Sort Of

Stuart Rothenberg September 17, 2014 · 11:19 AM EDT

There was a time, a little less than a year ago, when Democrats salivated at the thought of running against the GOP brand and demonizing Republican candidates by attacking them and their party for “shutting down the government.”

But the Republican brand has largely recovered from its low point…

Will Women Lose Ground in the House GOP After 2014?

Nathan L. Gonzales September 16, 2014 · 12:10 PM EDT

Republicans are at virtually no risk of losing their House majority in November, but there is a little extra pressure to win a handful of key districts in order to avoid taking a step back in the number of women in the Republican conference.

Republicans have been on the defensive about their…

A National Election or a Localized One?

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Stuart Rothenberg September 12, 2014 · 4:30 PM EDT

Our House and Senate ratings continue to reflect state-level and district-level surveys, as well as the fundamentals of each contest. But as we all know, midterm elections sometimes become referenda on the sitting president. When that happens, if the electorate’s mood is angry and dissatisfied…

Putting House Expectations Into Context

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Nathan L. Gonzales September 12, 2014 · 4:29 PM EDT

“Republicans are on track to expand their majority by only five or six seats, or roughly half their goal,” according to a Politico piece, “Halfway House: GOP falling short in midterms,” published earlier this month.

“From a historic perspective, a five- or six-seat gain would be a…

Democratic Hopes Shine Brighter in Gubernatorial Races

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Nathan L. Gonzales September 12, 2014 · 4:28 PM EDT

Some of the best news of the election cycle for Democrats continues to be in gubernatorial races.

With the Senate majority in a precarious position and trying to stem further losses in the House, Democrats have the opportunity to capture a handful of governorships, including big states such as…