March 21, 2003
...On Money
The newest party fund raising numbers are mind-boggling. According to Political Moneyline.Com, The National Republican Senatorial Committee outraised the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee by more than 2-to-1 ($2 million to $900,000) during February, but that’s only the tip of the iceberg.
The numbers are worse on the House side, with the National Republican Congressional Committee raising $8.1 million to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s $1.4 million. (Both House campaign committees, however, are carrying over $5 million in debt.) The Democratic National Committee trailed the Republican National Committee $9.7 million to $2.6 million in cash raised for February. At the end of the month, the RNC had no debt and $14 million in the bank, while the DNC had a debt of $1.6 million and $3 million on hand.
The conventional wisdom has held for months that new campaign finance law would benefit the Republicans, and these numbers prove that it has. And things could get worse for the Democrats, since the fund raising gap could affect candidate recruitment and the cycle’s overall psychology.
The bottom line: Money doesn’t automatically equal electoral victories, but it could help cushion the Republicans against the effects of a possible Democratic wave in 2004.
...On Races
While national political strategists wait for decisions by Cong. Jennifer Dunn (R-Washington) and Cong. Jack Kingston (R-Georgia) about whether they will run for the Senate, insiders doubt that either one will make the race. Dunn has never been seen as a risk-taker, and Kingston is a member of the influential Appropriations Committee. So if Dunn challenges Washington State Sen. Patty Murray (D) or Kingston jumps into the Georgia Senate race (left open because Democratic Sen. Zell Miller is retiring), it would be a surprise.
As Nevada Cong. Jim Gibbons (R) considers a possible challenge to Democratic Senate Whip Harry Reid (D), the state’s other senator, Republican John Ensign, is in something of a pickle. Ensign and Reid have an unusually cordial relationship – especially for two men who faced each other in a bitter Senate race that was decided by a few hundred votes – but the GOP senator has an obligation to his party to try to pick up another seat. Exactly how far will Ensign go to help his party defeat Reid?
Gov. Judy Martz (R-Montana), who won election in 2000 and is up for reelection next year, looks like a defeat waiting to happen, regardless of which Democrat ends up as her opponent. Martz’s poll numbers are horrific – only 20% of those polled approve of her job performance – and Democrats see her as a top target. Yes, Montana has been something of a disappointment for Democrats of late, with Martz’s victory three years ago, Dennis Rehberg (R) retaining the US House seat for his party when it was open in 2000, and Sen. Conrad Burns winning reelection. But Sen. Max Baucus (D) was reelected easily last year.
...On Other Stuff
Isn’t it odd that General Wesley Clark, who refuses to disavow interest in running for President in 2004, is commenting on the US military operation in Iraq for CNN? Clark has so far focused on military tactics, not President Bush’s diplomatic efforts. But if the former NATO commander does become a candidate for the Democratic nomination, will political reporters go back and analyze his comments to see if his Presidential ambitions seeped into his commentary?
Stuart Rothenberg is editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report.