March 5, 2004
2004 Political Landscape Update.
Corresponding to our new March 4 House Outlook in the print-edition of The Rothenberg Political Report, we have updated our 2004 Political Landscape. Overall, eleven House races shifted categories in our most recent ratings, including a handful of races that were dropped from and added to the currently competitive list.
Five House races were added to the competitive list including: (1) the expected open seat in Louisiana 3, currently held by Republican Cong. Billy Tauzin (2) the Louisiana 7 seat being vacated by Democrat Chris John as he focuses on the U.S. Senate. (3) Freshman GOP Cong. Jim Gerlach in Pennsylvania 6 (4) the member vs. member battle in Texas 32 featuring Republican Pete Sessions and Democrat Martin Frost and (5) the newly-open Washington 8, currently held by Jennifer Dunn (R) who is not seeking reelection.
Four races were dropped from the list including (1) the open California 3 seat where they are still counting the ballots to declare GOP nominee in Tuesday's primary (2) Freshman Republican Ginny Brown-Waite in Florida 5 who has failed to draw a top tier or any tier challenger to this point (3) Kentucky 6 where Ben Chandler (D) just won convincingly in the February 17 special election and (4) in Texas 10 where next week's Republican primary, and likely runoff, will determine who goes to Congress because Democratic Cong. Lloyd Doggett opted to run for reelection in the 25th District.
The other significant change is in Colorado where Republicans will now defend an open seat because of Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell's decision not to seek reelection.