June 30, 2003
...on North Carolina 5
Time for re-planting already?
Nathan Tabor, the wealthy, young businessman who just officially launched his 2004 bid for the GOP nomination in North Carolina's open 5th District, has stumbled out of the gate.
The part-owner of Revival Soy, which manufactures and distributes a soy food supplement, lost virtually his entire campaign team recently, including media consultant Fred Davis, pollster Jan van Lohuizen, finance director Christie Wilson, campaign manager Todd Bachman and media buyer Kyle Roberts.
Tabor apparently promised to loan the campaign some significant "seed money" but buckled when he had to write the check.
Also in the race for Richard Burr's open seat are former J.P. Morgan executive Jay Helvey, state Sen. Virginia Foxx, former state Motor Vehicle Commissioner Ed Powell and others.
...on Open House Seats
Retirements, anyone?
We've noted how slow this cycle has been in term of House races, and one of the reasons may well be the paucity of open seats. So far, eight districts are open for 2004 - California 3 (Ose), Georgia 6 (Isakson), Georgia 8 (Collins), Michigan 7 (Smith), Missouri 3 (Gephardt), North Carolina 5 (Burr), Pennsylvania 15 (Toomey) and South Carolina 4 (DeMint). All but Ose and Smith are seeking other office. Gephardt is the only Democrat in the bunch.
How does the number eight compare to previous cycles? I went back to Roll Call "Casualty Lists" to check out the numbers.
Here's what I found:
Two years ago, in late June of 2001, 10 House members had already indicate they were leaving the House. Four were retiring, while six were seeking other office. Many members, however, were waiting to see how redistricting played out.
Two years before that, in early July, 16 members were already headed out the door. Nine members had already announced that they were retiring, while seven were headed for other office.
Two years before that, in mid-June of 1997, 10 House members were retiring - six were running for other office, while four were simply calling it quits.
So, we are a little behind previous cycles in retirements. That could well mean that we have fewer retirements than we have had recently (34 in 2002, 30 in 2000, 33 in 1998, 49 in 1996, 48 in 1994, 65 in 1992, 27 in 1990, 23 in 1988, 40 in 1986 and 22 in 1984). (source: Vital Statistics on Congress, 2001-2002 and Roll Call.)
...on Senate Recruiting
Spinmeisters from both parties have been trying to sell the same story: the other party is coming up short in Senate candidate recruiting.
Democrats cite former Sen. Jim Edgar's decision not to run in Illinois and HUD Secretary Mel Martinez's decision to take a pass on the Florida Senate race as evidence of Republican failures. Republicans finger Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell (D-Mo.), who decided against a Missouri Senate race, and Georgia as evidence of states where the Democrats are having problems with recruiting.
In fact, there are still a lot of decisions out there for candidates to make. It's just too soon to evaluate the success or failure of the parties. Let's see if Tony Knowles (D) runs in Alaska, Cong. Jim Gibbons (R) runs in Nevada and John Thune (R) runs again in South Dakota. Let's wait for decisions in the Carolinas and Missouri. Let's wait for any more open seats.
In other words, keep your powder dry.
...on the California Governor Recall
Everyone agrees that Gov. Gray Davis (D-Calif.) is in trouble: the state's deficit is up and the governor's job approval is down.
But not all Republicans are rallying behind the effort, funded by Cong. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), to recall the governor. Lots of GOPers, especially those in the nation's capital, think the recall effort is just plain dumb. They want George W. Bush and the eventual Republican Senate nominee against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) to be able to take advantage of voter anger at Davis.
But some California Republicans see this as their best shot to win the state's top office, and they don't much care that installing a Republican would hurt the party's federal candidates in 2004.