June 12, 2003
...on Governor Problems 2004
The nation's governors continue to be squeezed between a rock and a hard place - shrinking revenues and increasing public demands for state spending.
For governors elected in 2002, that's not an immediate problem. Those state chief executives still have over three years to improve their standing with the voters. But for governors like Gary Locke (D-Washington), Bob Holden (D-Missouri), Judy Martz (R-Montana) and Mike Easley (D-North Carolina), all of whom must face the voters next year, the national recession has immediate implications.
Those incumbents, plus Jim Douglas (R-Vermont) and scandal-tainted West Virginia Democrat Bob Wise, face difficult races. Douglas was elected with well under 50% of the vote, and Wise could face a credible primary opponent, as well as a serious Republican in the fall. In addition, Democrats may not be able to hold Indiana's top job when Gov. Frank O'Bannon (D) retires (see below).
Six Democratic governorships are up in 2004 compared to five Republicans. Given current vulnerabilities, the Republicans should be able to add one or two governorships next year.
...on Indiana Governor
Gov. Frank O'Bannon's retirement gives the Republicans an opportunity. State Sen. Vi Simpson and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew will face off in the Democratic primary. Andrew, who has considerable backing from organized labor, is the favorite.
On the GOP side, former OMB chief Mitch Daniels, a one-time aide to Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Indiana), is the early favorite. But conservatives Eric Miller and former congressman David McIntosh, the 2000 Republican nominee for governor, are also in the race.
The biggest question is whether the White House, which in the past has used its influence to woo candidates into Senate races and even to clear primary fields, will weigh in behind Daniels.
So far, the President has stayed out of the race, and Miller and McIntosh continue to insist that they are running and have received no pressure to yield to Daniels. But until the White House issues an unambiguous statement that it has no favorite in the Republican primary, the shadow of President Bush will hang over the GOP race.
...on Arizona 1 & Utah 2: Clearing the Field is Hard to Do
They're baaaack....
Two Democrats who lost the Arizona 1st District 2002 Democratic primary to George Cordova - Apache County Attorney Steve Udall and attorney Diane Prescott - are moving toward another run in '04. The problem for district Democrats is that Cordorva, who lost by just three points but received mediocre reviews, is also considering another run. Party strategists and the state's new Democratic governor, Janet Napolitano, were hoping that they could avoid a fractured primary, but that may not be possible. Freshman Cong. Rick Renzi (R) looks vulnerable.
In Utah's 2nd District, former state Rep. John Swallow (R), who lost narrowly to Cong. Jim Matheson (D), has been gearing up for a re-match. Republican insiders figure Swallow should have a better shot this time, especially if he can avoid an expensive primary. But businessman/former Utah County Republican chairman Tim Bridgewater, who lost to Swallow in the 2002 GOP primary, apparently is ready to jump into the race.