July 29, 2003
...on the Fight for the House
Eleven members of the House of Representatives won with less than 51% in November. Such narrow winners are regarded as among the most vulnerable incumbents in the next election, so tracking their opposition is a way of tracking the entire cycle.
These districts will be ones to watch as the incumbents raise money and the parties scour for challengers.
Alabama 3. Mike Rogers (R) garnered 50.3% in the race to succeed Bob Riley (R), who was elected governor last November. The district was redrawn prior to last year's race and is 32% African-American. Democrats hoped to take over the seat, which George W. Bush carried 52%-47% in the 2000 presidential election, last time but were unsuccessful. No clear Democratic challenger has emerged, and Rogers had almost $500,000 in the bank at the end of June.
Arizona 1. Rick Renzi (R) received 49.2% is a district Bush carried 50%-45% in the 2000 presidential race. For the Democrats, 2002 nominee George Cordova is running again, but a host of others who ran last time or are taking a long look too. Renzi showed $244,315 on hand at the end of the second quarter.
Colorado 7. Bob Beauprez (R) won the narrowest victory of 2002, 121 votes (47.3%). The district was drawn to be extremely competitive and it lived up to the expectations, but a new set of lines, passed this year, makes the district significantly more Republican. Beauprez showed almost $408,000 on hand through June.
Florida 5. Ginny Brown-Waite (R) took 47.9% in ousting Democratic Cong. Karen Thurman. Brown-Waite will now be seeking reelection in a district Bush carried 52%-45% in 2000. Can the Democrats get a top challenger? The freshman Republican had $323,241 on hand at the end of June.
Georgia 3. Jim Marshall (D) received 50.5% over Republican Calder Clay last November. Clay is setting his sights once again on Marshall, but other GOPers are looking as well. And Marshall is mentioned as a possible Senate candidate. Bush won the district 52%-48% in 2000. Through June, the congressman had almost $200,000 in the bank.
Indiana 2. Chris Chocola (R) received 50.5% for his first term in the South Bend-area district in which Bush took 54% over Al Gore in 2000. No Democrat has yet stepped forward to run, and Chocola showed $311,164 on hand as of June 30.
Kansas 3. Dennis Moore (D) won with 50.2% over airline pilot Adam Taff (R) in last year's general election. Now, Taff is looking to unseat Moore once again in a district Bush won 53%-42% in the 2000 presidential election. But Taff may have opposition in the primary from his opponent last year, physician Jeff Colyer, or from state Rep. Patricia Barbieri-Lightner or former Justice Department official Kris Kobach. Taff showed $205,756 in the bank in his second quarter FEC report to Moore's $351,974.
Louisiana 5. Rodney Alexander (D) received 50.3% in his first win. Former Cong. John Cooksey (R),who gave up the seat for a Senate bid last time, may try to reclaim it. Bush won the district handily, 57%-40%, in the 2000 presidential race. The freshman congressman showed $253,348 the bank through June.
New York 1. Tim Bishop (D) got 50.2% to oust then-incumbent Felix Grucci (R) in 2002. Gore carried the district 53%-43% in 2000, but it's generally regarded as leaning Republican. Can the GOP get its act together and recruit a top tier name? Bishop had $203,301 on hand through the first six months of 2003.
Pennsylvania 13. Joe Hoeffel (D) received 50.9% last time, and he's now entered the Senate race. That means this open seat is up for grabs. The 2002 GOP nominee, Melissa Brown, is running again, but the district tilts Democratic.
Washington 2. Rick Larsen (D) won a second term with 50% of the vote (by 9,000 votes), while outspending his opponent Norma Smith 3 to 1. Gore won the seat 48%-46% in 2000. No Republican challenger has yet emerged, and the Democrat had $338,934 in the bank through June.
Overall: 5 Republican Incumbents and 6 Democratic Incumbents, including one retiring.