July 22, 2004
Pennsylvania 8: Another Potential Headache
Pennsylvania Cong. Jim Greenwood (R) announced today that he would not seek reelection, creating another potential headache for Republicans.
The race is somewhat complicated because the Keystone State has already had its primary. Greenwood won renomination easily, and Democrats nominated attorney Ginny Schrader, a sacrificial lamb against the invulnerable Republican. But that was when this race was not in play and virtually uncompetitive. Now, Republicans are looking for Greenwood's replacement, and Democrats have at least one eye on the look out for another candidate.
The Lay of the Land
The 8th District includes all of Bucks County and a small portion of eastern Montgomery County. A whopping 92% of the vote comes from the Bucks portion, about 5% from Philadelphia, and only 3% from Montgomery County. In the 2000 presidential race, Al Gore beat George W. Bush 51%-46%, in a district, which lies entirely in the Philadelphia media market And this is most definitely Ed Rendell country.
Greenwood, who was first elected in 1992, is a moderate and one of the most prominent pro-choice Republicans in Congress. He is expected to take a post at the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) in late January.
After the congressman's announcement, Republicans were left without a nominee and Democrats with a candidate who had $7,741 in her campaign account on June 30. Greenwood had over $600,000 on hand for his reelection bid.
The Democratic Side- Schrader?
Virginia "Ginny" Schrader, 60, lived in Braintree, Massachusetts until 1971. She graduated Suffolk University (Boston) in 1971, earned her M.P.A. from Temple University in 1977, and got a job with the Philadelphia Redevelopment Authority. Then, at 39 years old, she returned to Temple and got her law degree in 1986.
In 1994, Shrader moved to Lower Makefield Township (Bucks County) and worked as Vice President and Counsel for American International Recovery, a subsidiary of AIG Insurance. She worked out of its Mount Laurel, New Jersey office. She resigned earlier in the month to run for Congress.
In 2002, Shrader ran for the state House and lost to incumbent Dave Steil (R) 59%-41%. The Lower Bucks district leans Republican and Steil severely outspent his Democratic foe.
Schrader is pro-choice, favors civil unions, and disagrees with President Bush on the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act. She also favors rolling back the tax cut for those individuals making $200,000 or more.
Some Democrats, soon after Greenwood's announcement, seemed to open the door for another candidate to run in the general election. But Schrader would need to take her own name off the ballot to give the party the opportunity to name a replacement.
Joe Torsella, who lost the primary in the neighboring 13th District has been mentioned, but he will not be a candidate, according to sources close to him. State Reps. Thomas Corrigan and Anthony Melio are the only two Democratic legislators in Bucks County but are both unlikely to throw their names in. Bucks County Commissioner Sandra Miller may have been an attractive candidate a year ago, but the timetable may keep her away.
The Republican Side
Now, Republicans will select a replacement nominee. Delegates are assigned to each county in proportion to their percentage of the vote and about half are appointed by the county chairmen, giving Bucks County GOP Chairman Harry W. Fawkes essentially complete control of the process. Three names are consistently mentioned as possible replacements.
State Sen. Joe Conti of Doylestown, holds Greenwood's former seat in the state Senate. He earned his BA from Penn State in 1976 and later his master's from Penn State in 2000. Conti served in the state House for four years until 1996 when he was elected to the Senate. The state legislator is pro-choice and generally described as a moderate.
State Sen. Robert "Tommy" Tomlinson of Bensalem is described as pro-life and more conservative. In 2002, he defeated former Cong. Peter Kostmayer to win reelection. Greenwood defeated Kostmayer in 1992 to come to Congress. The funeral director served four years in the state House before being elected to the Senate in 1994.
Also mentioned is Bucks County Commissioner Michael Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick, 41, has been on the board since 1995 and is from Lower Bucks County. He graduated St. Thomas University in Miami in 1985 and earned his J.D. from Penn State in 1988. Fitzpatrick, who is also pro-life, is Middletown Township and is special counsel at the Philadelphia law firm Saul Ewing LLP.
Greenwood was seen escorting Conti around Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, but Bucks County GOP Chairman Fawkes told PoliticsPA.com that his first choice was Fitzpatrick. Tomlinson told the Philadelphia Daily News on Wednesday that he was not interested in running and that Fitzpatrick should be the "lead candidate."
If it seems confusing now, the congressman has until August 9 to remove himself from the ballot and the party has until August 19 to replace him.
How It Plays Out
Greenwood's announcement brings the open seat total to 32 across the country. Of those, 11 are currently competitive. It remains to be seen whether Pennsylvania's 8th District will be in play. If Greenwood would have made his announcement six months ago, it would have given Democrats more time to field a different candidate, or at least get a candidate who can raise money.
But because its an open seat in a politically marginal part of the state, both sides must now focus some time and resources on the district. Once Republicans decide on a candidate and Democrats figure out what they are going to do with Schrader, then it will be easier to handicap the race.
By Nathan L. Gonzales