Archive

Podcast Episode 15: California Senate and House Primaries with Melanie Mason of Politico

February 1, 2024 · 6:11 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Melanie Mason of Politico discuss the upcoming California primaries including the race to replace Dianne Feinstein in the Senate and more than a dozen consequential and interesting House primaries. And Nathan contemplates buying a track suit fashioned after a…

Iowa 3: Des Moines Melee

by Jacob Rubashkin January 26, 2024 · 2:30 PM EST

The presidential circus left town, but the most consequential political fight in Des Moines is just getting started.

Iowa’s 3rd District is one of the most evenly divided seats in the country, and has been for the better part of two decades. The Des Moines-based district has switched hands…

California Senate: Only the Top Two Survive

by Jacob Rubashkin January 26, 2024 · 2:29 PM EST

One of the most hard-fought and expensive Senate races this cycle has absolutely nothing to do with who controls the majority in the upper chamber.

The race to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein in California features three sitting members of Congress, a former MLB all-star, a half-dozen media…

Michigan Senate: Primary Focus

by Jacob Rubashkin January 26, 2024 · 2:29 PM EST

Longtime Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s decision not to seek a fifth term makes Michigan an intriguing pickup opportunity for Senate Republicans this fall, albeit one that is not nearly as ripe as the party’s top priorities.

Despite success at most other levels of electoral politics, Michigan…

2022 Vote Above Replacement: House Challengers Running Again in 2024

by Bradley Wascher January 26, 2024 · 2:27 PM EST

There’s no shame in finishing second, because Congress is filled with losers.

In 2020, Republican Air Force veteran Anna Paulina Luna failed to unseat Democratic then-Rep. Charlie Crist in Florida’s 13th District. Two years later, Luna, now without worry of Crist, who was running for governor,…

Report Shorts (Jan. 26, 2024)

January 26, 2024 · 2:26 PM EST

Louisiana’s 6th District. A redrawn congressional map is the result of a legal challenge under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and is poised to deliver an additional seat to Democrats. The Supreme Court’s ruling in a similar case in Alabama last year set off a domino effect throughout the South,…

Louisiana Redistricting: Democrats +1, Graves 0

by Jacob Rubashkin January 22, 2024 · 4:00 PM EST

House Democrats look set to pick up a seat in Louisiana following a court-ordered redistricting process, at the expense of a once-powerful ally of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

While not final, the map passed by the Louisiana state legislature and supported by GOP Gov. Jeff Landry last week would…

Podcast Episode 14: Iowa Caucus Results, Delegate Counting w/ Leah Askarinam

January 18, 2024 · 11:34 AM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Leah Askarinam of 538 and the Associated Press discuss the Iowa caucus results and the intricacies of counting delegates in the presidential nominating process.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections…

A Good Night for Trump and Polling, and Other Post-Iowa Thoughts

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 16, 2024 · 7:53 AM EST

Thanks to Iowa Republicans, the first 2024 election is in the books, and we have the first opportunity of the year to chew over some results. 

The bottom line is that Donald Trump did what he needed to do. The former president came into Monday as the clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination and…