Why Republicans Must Win the Senate in 2014

Stuart Rothenberg October 15, 2014 · 11:09 AM EDT

If next month produces a big Republican year, with the GOP gaining control of the Senate and expanding its majority in the House, it will say little or nothing about 2016, when a presidential electorate and a very different Senate class combine to create the makings of a substantially good…

Ratings Change: Arkansas Senate from Toss-up/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican

Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2014 · 8:33 AM EDT

Arkansas Senate polls released by Democrats and one media outlet suggest that incumbent Senator Mark Pryor leads GOP challenger Rep. Tom Cotton by a couple of percentage points. But most surveys – both public and unreleased – suggest Cotton holds a modest but stable mid-single digit lead in the…

Ratings Change: Alaska Senate from Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2014 · 8:32 AM EDT

The Alaska Senate race remains quite close, with incumbent Democrat Mark Begich continuing to run a quality campaign. But the contest has started to better reflect the state’s partisan bent and its attitudes about the president, and Sullivan has moved to a small but significant advantage in the…

Ratings Change: South Dakota Senate from Republican Favored to Lean Republican

Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2014 · 8:31 AM EDT

Republican Mike Rounds continues to underperform in what has become a whacky three-way fight (four-way, if you count the Libertarian on the ballot). While the state’s Republican bent could well bail him out in November, and the NRSC has allocated money for the race, we can no longer rule out the…

Democrats Decidedly on Defense in the House

Nathan L. Gonzales October 10, 2014 · 3:15 PM EDT

The House playing field continues to shift in favor of Republicans as President Barack Obama’s slumping job approval numbers cast a shadow over the landscape and Democrats shift their financial resources from offensive opportunities to defensive positions.

At the beginning of the cycle, David…