January 12, 2005
Don't Call Rossi 'Senator' Just Yet.
Democrat Christine Gregoire has been certified and today she was inaugurated Washington state's next governor. And Republican Dino Rossi will come up just short of his bid to become the state's top office holder. Rossi's near-miss gubernatorial candidacy now has him pegged as a can't-miss candidate for Senate in 2006 against Sen. Maria Cantwell (D). But there is reason to be skeptical.
As it stands, Gregoire will prevail by 129 votes out of 2.9 million cast, all after a couple recounts, a few discovered ballots, and plenty of shouting and posturing. Republicans have now officially challenged the outcome in the courts, but the chances of a re-vote are slim.
It's important to remember that Rossi's candidacy for governor was fueled by one essential ingredient: Change. Democrats have held the top post in the Evergreen State for 20 years and voters looked anxious to mix things up. Gov. Gary Locke (D) sported low enough job approval ratings that he decided not to run for reelection. And Gregoire, as a Democrat and statewide officeholder in Olympia, made an easy target for Rossi and his change message.
In some respects, Cantwell is an attractive target for GOPers looking to widen their margin in the Senate. The senator was elected in 2000 by just a couple thousand votes (one-tenth of one percent) and she had to spend piles of her own money to get there. But she did defeat incumbent Sen. Slade Gorton (R).
But against Cantwell, Rossi's change message is rendered meaningless and could even work against him. His party controls the White House, the U.S. Senate, and the U.S. House. Any change message that might develop in the next two years will surely benefit Democrats nationwide, not Republicans. And Washington remains a blue state, going 53%-46% for John Kerry over George W. Bush last November.
Rossi's momentum is not necessarily transferable to a Senate race. In races for governor, there is a natural cycle of turnover. After one party has been in power for an extended period of time, voters are willing to give the other party a chance to govern. That's why red-state Wyoming elected a Democrat in 2002. And in blue-state Pennsylvania, the parties have traded the governorship every eight years since World War II. But federal races are entirely different.
So, Republicans should pause before assuming Rossi would be their party's best candidate against Cantwell. It's unclear that Rossi even wants to serve in the U.S. Senate or that he's anxious for another two years of nonstop campaigning. He is definitely a rising star in the state Republican Party, but his best shot at getting elected may be to hold tight and run for governor again in four years. Rossi's 2008 message: Change.
By Nathan L. Gonzales