December 8, 2003
...on Florida Senate: Mel's Expected Sunshine State Flip-Flop
Earlier this year, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez made it very clear to anyone he encountered what he thought about a possible bid for the United States Senate: It wasn’t his cup of tea.
On the other hand, Martinez thought of himself as suited for an executive job – an executive job such as governor of Florida. Not coincidentally, there will be an election for that job in 2006.
But now, unless the buzz in the Sunshine State and inside the DC beltway is wrong, Martinez is about to leave HUD so that he can run for Florida’s Republican Senate nomination.
The only - and I do mean ONLY - way to explain Martinez’s expected change of direction is White House intervention.
Martinez owes his current cabinet post to George W. Bush, and the President’s political advisors undoubtedly have concluded that they need Martinez on the ballot in Florida next year to help Bush carry the state.
The current GOP Senate field includes two state legislators, Johnnie Byrd and Daniel Webster, and one former congressman, Bill McCollum, the party’s unsuccessful 2000 Senate nominee.
Bush’s advisors may well have concluded that none of the GOP Senate hopefuls would help the President, or that the early front runner for the Republican nomination, McCollum, might actually prove to be a detriment to the top of the ticket.
Martinez is personable, articulate and likable. He’s comfortable making small talk or discussing housing policy. Given his personal qualities, fund raising potential and ethnicity, he could be a very good candidate. But he will have to prove himself on the stump.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is sending out e-mails attacking Martinez, hoping either to dissuade him from entering the Senate race or to damage his election prospects. That is a clear signal that they are worried and would rather not face him in 2004.
... on the 2004 Democratic Race: Is It Over For Kerry?
As former Vermont Governor Howard Dean pads to his already considerable lead in New Hampshire polls, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry has to be wondering to himself whether it’s all over for him.
Personally, I’m not quite ready to bury Kerry yet, but I must admit that I can’t argue with those who are already doing so. He now trails Dean, Gephardt, Clark and probably Edwards in terms of likelihood of being the Democratic nominee.
Kerry will have plenty of cash to fund his early efforts, and that is enough of a reason to keep an eye non him. Until one candidate wraps up the nomination, the Democratic race is about survival, and Kerry can hang on for a long time if he so chooses.
But the Massachusetts senator needs to finish a credible third in Iowa if he has any chance of stopping his free fall in New Hampshire. Democratic insiders rarely mention him as emerging as Dean’s alternative, and poor showings in the first two tests will all but eliminate him from serious consideration.
... on the 2004 Democratic Race: Dean's Worst TV Appearance
Much was made of Sen. John Edwards’ poor appearance on Meet The Press more than a year ago, but it certainly was no worse than former Vermont Governor’s appearance this weekend on Fox News Sunday.
Too often, Dean seemed confused or tongue-tied in the face of a series of direct questions by new host Chris Wallace. To be fair, the former governor was interviewed by remote, meaning he was sitting in a studio talking to a camera. That’s not a setting conducive to an effective appearance. And in appearing on Fox, with its conservative viewership, Dean may not have been sure how he wanted to appear to viewers.
But even with that, Dean seemed off his game. He answered questions poorly about his sealed records as governor and about why he raised the “theory” that the President knew about the attacks of September 11th before the events.
Dean’s flop on Fox is particularly notable because he was, as usual, in terrific form at the Florida Democratic Party’s convention over the weekend. Fiery and energetic, he engaged the audience, drew them in and turned them on. Dean was always on attack, always moving forward. And, as usual, he outshined his opponents.