August 26, 2003
...on the 2004 Presidential Race
Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry will formally announce on September 2 and 3 that he is running for President. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards will do the same about two weeks later, on September 16.
Only in the world of politics could someone who has been running for President for well over a year say with a straight face that he has yet to announce his candidacy.
But the Kerry and Edwards announcements are important since both men have had trouble launching their efforts so far.
Edwards began as the candidate with a lot of potential, and he is still that. Unfortunately for him, some candidates - notably former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and Cong. Dick Gephardt - have gone beyond mere potential. Dean has caught fire, and Gephardt has masterfully orchestrated a series of labor union endorsements in his effort to build momentum for Iowa.
Edwards's first quarter fund raising numbers were strong, but his second quarter results were less impressive and overshadowed by Dean. He has shown some movement in South Carolina, which holds its primary on February 3 and which is crucial to Edwards's strategy, but poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire could deflate the Edwards campaign before the South comes into play.
Still, the Tar Heel state senator comes from the right part of the country, has the ability to move around ideologically, is strong on TV and has a good team. Foreign policy remains a significant hole in his resume, and he may strike too many Democrats as not ready to run for President. But at this point in the process, he still has potential.
Kerry once seemed to have the potential to establish himself as the Democratic front runner. But while his fund raising numbers have been strong, he has fallen back to the pack.
Probably more than any of the serious contenders, Kerry has been hit from all sides. Critics hit him for waffling on the big issues of the day, and for failing to overcome his reputation for being cold and distant. Maybe worst of all, he appears to many people to be a man without a core rationale for running. In other words: Great resume. No Message.
The Massachusetts Democrat's recent Philadelphia Cheesesteak incident received heavy media attention because reporters (and Kerry's opponents) are looking for evidence to confirm their view that the presidential hopeful doesn't know how real people live and can't identify with their tastes and trends. Aides to Kerry have long dismissed that criticism, but they ought not do so.
In "launching" their campaigns, both Kerry and Edwards are raising expectations.
Reporters and political insiders will be looking for evidence that their announcements - and their candidacies - have caught the public's attention. We'll all expect to see their poll numbers move and their buzz increase. If that doesn't happen, their announcements may ultimately be seen as the beginning of the end - not the beginning of a new, positive stage of their campaigns.
But if their announcements strike the right chord, Kerry and Edwards could find their campaigns revitalized.
...on Nevada Senate
Cong. Jim "Hamlet" Gibbons (R-NV), the man who couldn't decide whether he would run for the United States Senate, for reelection to the House or some other office in 2004, has ruled out a challenge to Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nevada) days after saying that he could beat Reid if he were to run against him. Instead, the Congressman says he'll run for another term in the House.
Gibbons made his announcement twice today - once in Las Vegas and once up north - just in case you missed one of them. You get the impression that he'd come to your house for an announcement if you had a TV camera in your living room.
The Congressman said he made a decision after visiting Azerbaijan. Earlier in the year he had said he would make a decision after a trip to Hawaii. Hawaii, Azerbaijan, what's the difference?
The Congressman says he hasn't decided whether he will run for governor in 2006. Apparently, Gibbons is now just beginning his "will he or won't he" soliloquy for 2006, so if you missed it this week you'll surely get an opportunity to hear it over the next three years.
Gibbons said that he would like to be a member of the US Senate but his "responsibilities" in the House "take precedence over political ambition." Right. Like anybody on the planet is going to believe that.
Gibbons is now eligible for the "Will They or Won't They Run" Hall of Fame, which honors "potential" candidates who repeatedly mull campaigns but never run. Among others, the current Hall includes Tom Kean (R-NJ), Jennifer Dunn (R-WA) and Mario Cuomo (D-NY).