August 20, 2004
Bush vs. Kerry
With two and one-half months to go until Election Day, Sen. John Kerry (D) continues to have a slight advantage over President George W. Bush in the Presidential race.
Most polls show Bush's job approval at under 50% (Gallup is an exception), and a majority of Americans still say the country is headed in the wrong direction - a serious problem for an incumbent president who is asking for another term.
With poor jobs numbers last month, high oil prices and continued conflict in Iraq, the President continues to have to overcome bad news.
But it's far too premature to portray the Presidential contest as history. While the GOP convention isn't likely to boost Bush's standing greatly, even an uptick of a point or two would be important. And in New York, the Republicans will have another opportunity to convince voters that Kerry isn't an acceptable alternative to Bush - increasingly an obvious element of the Bush campaign's strategy.
In one respect, the Bush-Kerry race is starting to resemble the Jesse Helms-Jim Hunt Senate race in North Carolina in 1984. That race was vicious, with the candidates attacking each other relentlessly and often personally. Values and character were front and center.
Hunt (D), the sitting governor, began with a big lead over the incumbent Republican senator, according to state polls. Helms, Democrats said, was out of touch and too conservative, while Hunt was positioned as a pragmatist and a spokesman for the New South. In March of 1983, A University of North Carolina survey showed Hunt leading 54%-32%. A November 1983 Raleigh News and Observer poll had Hunt's lead at nine points, 52%-43%. In May 1984, after months of attacks on Hunt a News and Observer poll found Helms pulling ahead.
Both candidates ended up with high personal negatives, but that was the price Helms had to pay to portray Hunt as a liberal.
This election cycle began far more polarized and with the race tighter than that 1984 North Carolina race, and there has been little movement in the Bush-Kerry contest. But the tone of the 2004 Presidential race resembles the 1984 North Carolina Senate contest, and Republicans apparently are trying to convince swing voters that Kerry is an unacceptable alternative to the President, particularly when it comes to character and values.
As for the national polling numbers, forget them. This race is down to about a dozen states. But if you want to narrow your focus even further, look at Ohio and Florida, both of which Bush needs to carry.
The President still scores best on terrorism, and future events could either enhance his standing on that issue (allowing him to ride it to a second term) or undercut his one area of strength (all but handing the White House to the Democrats). So while John Kerry is currently better positioned for the stretch run, it's simply too early to call this contest.
By Stuart Rothenberg