August 13, 2003
...on the 2004 Presidential Race
New Expectations Create a New Democratic Presidential Race
Before anyone hands the Democratic nomination to the latest "hot" candidate or pronounces the demise of one of the major contenders, it's best to evaluate where the race started and where it is today.
At this point, the contest is as much about expectations as anything else, and expectations have already changed. They could change again before Iowa.
Initially, in January of this year, Sen. John Kerry was regarded as the narrow front runner in the Democratic race, with Cong. Dick Gephardt and Sen. John Edwards his greatest competition. All three were expected to raise plenty of cash, to put together strong organizations in a handful of states with early tests and to appeal to large numbers of grass roots activists.
Sens. Joe Lieberman held the lead in most national polls, but most neutral observers wondered whether he had broad enough appeal within the party to compete with the favorites. Sen. Bob Graham was regarded as personally credible but needed to break out from his obscurity.
Former Gov. Howard Dean was seen as a hard-working, interesting long-shot who was a strong speaker who probably couldn't raise enough money to be a serious contender. Still, he was seen as having more potential than the other three candidates in the race, Cong. Dennis Kucinich, former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun and Al Sharpton.
Now, after two quarters of fund raising and dozens of national and state polls, the race has changed, as have expectations for the next six months.
Kerry's fund raising has been good, and he has built strong organizations in Iowa and New Hampshire. But Edwards's strong fund raising first quarter and Dean's second quarter surge seem to have brought Kerry back to the pack. I never hear talk any more about Kerry locking up the nomination with consecutive wins in the big January contests.
Instead, Dean has emerged as the candidate most often discussed as winning Iowa and New Hampshire. Most observers now seem to assume that the former governor's fund raising will continue to be strong, and that his confrontational style and anti-war message will continue to resonate with Democrats who believe that their party has been too timid in taking on President George W. Bush.
While some observers repeat over and over that the Democrats can't possibly nominate Dean, there is a growing sense that the former governor could build up enough momentum that it would be impossible to stop him.
Gephardt's early reviews were good (because of his strong stump speech and his health care proposal), but weak fund raising has led some observers to discount his chances, even as he receives more and more union endorsements. His inevitable victory in Iowa seems less certain with Dean's surge.
Edwards' fund raising lagged during the second quarter, and he has shown no movement in Iowa or New Hampshire. Those factors, plus Dean's emergence, have relegated Edwards to a virtual second-tier status.
In spite of solid fund raising in the second quarter of the year, Lieberman hasn't convinced most handicappers that he can break out of his mold as a moderate. With Dean and even Kucinich energizing Democrats from the left, the Connecticut senator sometimes looks lost in his own party.
Graham's very disappointing fund raising has undercut his credibility. But his quirky NASCAR message, combined with a very aggressive attack on Bush's Iraq policy, has continued to get media coverage for the Florida senator. He's still not moving in the polls, however, and some observers believe that his performance so far has hurt his prospects for V.P.
Dean now must live with high expectations, and with the realization that a poor fund raising quarter could get him tagged as a flash in the pan. But he almost certainly will have the money he needs to get his message out in the early contests, and that's why he is so dangerous.
Political consultants tell me that as Iowa approaches, Democrats in the early states will start to evaluate candidates on a different basis. Instead of simply wanting to express their outrage, those primary voters and caucus attendees will start looking for someone who can run the country and, specifically, fill the role of commander-in-chief. If that happens, it should benefit Kerry and Gephardt. If it doesn't, Dean could be smiling throughout January.