April 16, 2003
...on Illinois Senate
We don't regard Sen. Peter Fitzgerald's decision not to seek reelection as fundamentally altering our handicapping of the 2004 fight for the Senate. We placed that Senate seat in the "Vulnerable" category in our late January Senate newsletter overview, and continue to believe that that is where it belongs.
Fitzgerald's prospects were always iffy, and the Republicans could well end up with a general election candidate who is as strong - or maybe even stronger - than Fitzgerald. Obviously, if the party ultimately has to put up another second-tier nominee, then Fitzgerald's retirement will have had a significant impact. But for now, talk of one party or the other benefiting from the senator's announcement is nothing but spin and useless hot air.
Retirements continue to be a major potential problem for both parties, with Sens. Fritz Hollings (D-SC), John Edwards (D-NC), Bob Graham (D-FL) and Don Nickles (R-OK) among the incumbents who must make decisions about whether to run for reelection in 2004.
Much of the focus over the next year could be in the South - both for the 2003 gubernatorial races (in Mississippi, Louisiana and Kentucky) and for the 2004 Senate fight - and that should give the Democrats plenty of reasons for concern.
...on Mississippi Governor
The announcement by attorney John Arthur Eaves, Jr. that he won't seek the Democratic nomination for governor removes a considerable cloud over Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D). Eaves has the resources to force Musgrove to commit significant campaign funds to the primary, so his exit from the race helps the governor's finances - and reelection prospects.
Still, insiders agree that the likely Musgrove vs. Haley Barbour (R) contest is a toss-up.
...on reading the numbers
There is no doubt about one thing: the war in Iraq has helped President George W. Bush's numbers. No only is his job approval up, but polls now show a clear majority of Americans think the country is headed in the "right direction."
The most recent CBS News/New York Times poll has Bush's job approval at 73%, while 56% say the country is headed in the "right direction."
While poll numbers may reflect only a temporary boomlet, the new environment gives the President an opportunity to tap that optimism - and to reverse course on some of the politically unpalatable positions he took (on taxes and prescription drug coverage under Medicare, for example) before the U.S. attack on Saddam Hussein's government. The White House appears to be trying to back itself out of the tax cut corner it backed itself into by emphasizing the principle of a tax cut. Now, Bush says, the only question is the size of the cut.
Upbeat corporate earnings reports from Microsoft, Intel, Citigroup and Kraft, among others, has investors showing some guarded optimism, though it certainly is tempered by concerns over the economic impact of the SARS virus. And Americans still rate the economy as only "fair," hardly a vote of confidence in the President. A real stock market rally would be most welcome at the White House since it could boost overall confidence in an economic rebound and fuel that rebound as well.
While foreign policy will remain a Bush asset next year, the President's future undoubtedly depends on the economy.
Stuart Rothenberg is editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report.