April 10, 2003
...the Democratic Presidential Money Chase, Part I
The latest (preliminary) Democratic Presidential candidate money numbers, which reflect fund raising through the end of March, seem to confirm much of the early handicapping of that race.
Sens. John Edwards and John Kerry lead the pack, along with Rep. Dick Gephardt in the top tier. Sen. Joe Lieberman comes in a close fourth and former governor Howard Dean trails. Sen. Bob Graham is a late-starter and brings up the rear.
The rest of the field - Rep. Dennis Kucinich, former senator Carol Moseley Braun and Al Sharpton - has not shown enough fund raising muscle to deserve to be taken seriously as contenders for the Democratic nomination. They may impact the race, and their ideas and positions are worth noting, but they can't win.
Edwards's $7.4 million raised through the end of March is eye-popping, both for the sheer number of dollars involved, as well as for the fact that the North Carolina senator raised more cash than Kerry ($7 million), the presumptive front runner, or Gephardt ($3.6 million), who has established a national fund raising base through his years leading House Democrats.
Dean's money - he raised $2.6 million through March - deserves mention. While he didn't take in anything close to what Kerry or Edwards did, the former Vermont governor started his presidential bid as a political unknown from a small state. He had no national name ID, let alone a national fund raising base. Seen in those terms, Dean's fund raising is impressive. He'll never match the true top tier candidates in money, but he isn't running a traditional campaign anyway.
Graham gets a pass on these fund raising numbers because of his health problems. He started his campaign much later than others, making comparisons with the front runners unfair. But while Graham should be able to pick some low-hanging campaign cash over the next month or two, it's less clear whether he can he put together the kind of organization he needs to perform credibly in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The Florida senator suffers from his late entry, but he has hired some interesting staffers and consultants, including Paul Johnson, Steve Jarding and pollster Geoff Garin.
Gephardt's fund raising numbers may raise some concerns. In hauling in $3.6 million during the first three months of this year, the Missouri congressman raised only about half what Kerry or Edwards did. For a long-time Democratic Congressional leader with strong ties to organized labor and a loyal following in the St. Louis area, Gephardt's first quarter fund raising numbers aren't particularly impressive. His cash-on-hand ($5 million) is boosted by the transfer of funds from his Congressional campaign account.
The pressure remains on all of the candidates to prove they can match their initial fund raising efforts (in the case of Edwards and Kerry) or improve on them (in the cases of Gephardt, Lieberman and Graham). In other words, there's plenty more to come...
Stuart Rothenberg is editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report.