April 9, 2004
What's Up with Roy Moore?
"There's no predicting Roy Moore," intoned one Republican insider in Alabama. It's hard to disagree.
After Moore was removed from his Chief Justice post on the Alabama Supreme Court on November 13 for refusing to remove a 5,300-pound Ten Commandments monument from the lobby of the state judicial building, political observers immediately began speculating about his future.
Much of the early betting was that he would take on GOP Sen. Richard Shelby, who switched from the Democratic Party in 1994, in a 2004 Republican primary. But with the filing deadline passed, that option has disappeared.
The speculation about Moore's plans continues, including a potential run for President as the Constitution Party nominee. After the closely contested 2000 presidential election, the potential that George W. Bush would have his own version of Ralph Nader is intriguing. But will it actually happen?
According to most observers, Moore's most likely option is to challenge to Gov. Bob Riley (R) in the 2006 gubernatorial primary. But even though that is two years away, Moore's presence may still be felt on June 1 in the 6th Congressional District primary and in three statewide judicial races. In each of those contests, his supporters are attempting to get elected on his coattails.
President of the United States?
Moore has been very coy about a potential run for President, giving answers like "not right now," or "not at this time." His spokeswoman has told various media outlets that he is mainly focused on his pending appeal before a special court empanelled to hear his appeal.
Even if he's not running, Moore he has been acting like a candidate. On January 31, he was a featured speaker at the Christian Coalition's "Family and Freedom" rally in Atlanta. According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Moore was treated like a rock star, signing autographs, and getting thunderous standing ovations.
A week prior, Moore was a featured speaker at the Constitution Party's Biblical Foundations of American Law Conference in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Other speakers at the event included past Constitution Party presidential nominee Howard Phillips and former Republican presidential candidate Alan Keyes. Other more recent appearances include rallies in Dallas, Texas, Fort Smith, Arkansas, Denver, Colorado, and Branson, Missouri.
A website, ForMoore.com, is seeking to recruit the former chief justice into the presidential race. According to the site: "We endorse Roy Moore because he has the decency, integrity, and strength to lead America back to its traditional roots. George W. Bush, on the other hand, has betrayed the Republican Party's Christian base, with half-hearted, insincere devotion to God in his public policies. Bush has lost our faith. Roy Moore is the man to bring faith back to America!"
Even as a candidate on the Constitution Party line for president, Moore's affect on the race is unclear. In 2000, Phillips appeared on the ballot in 41 states and qualified as a write-in in six others. The Constitution Party has about 320,000 registered voters nationwide. According to local observers, Moore's candidacy is not likely to make a difference in states like Alabama or Mississippi (where President George W. Bush is expected to win handily), but possibly in more competitive states like Florida (where Phillips received 4,280 votes), Oregon (2,186 votes), Pennsylvania (15,252 votes) and Ohio (3,829 votes).
It is also very unclear that all of Moore's supporters are necessarily angry or disappointed enough with President Bush to vote against the sitting Republican president.
To this point, the Constitution Party's only announced candidate is Maryland attorney Michael Peroutka. Peroutka has said he would step aside if Moore wants the nomination. The Constitution Party National Convention is set for June 23-26 in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, where a nominee will be selected.
6th Congressional District
The initial test of Moore's influence comes in the 6th Congressional District on June 1 in Republican primary. Cong. Spencer Bachus (R), who was first elected back in 1992, is being challenged by Phillip Jauregui, Roy Moore's former defense attorney. Jauregui, 34, graduated Cumberland Law School at Samford University is a former legal advisor to Gov. Fob James (R).
But defeating Bachus from the right may be a difficult task. The opening line in CQ's 2004 Politics in America describes the congressman as a "steadfast conservative with strong religious views." It goes on to call him a "devout Baptist," and a congressman who "casts a dependable vote on issues such as tax cuts, abortion, and illegal immigration." Most recently he gained 96% and 100% ratings from the American Conservative Union in 2001 and 2002.
And, as noted by Roll Call's Lauren Whittington, Bachus is the co-sponsor of legislation that would prohibit lawsuits challenging government displays of the Ten Commandments and to stop federal judges from hearing cases that question government's acknowledgement of God.
Thus far, much of the criticism of Bachus centers on his support for Gov. Riley's recent tax increase proposal. But that "isn't even a 'Moore issue,'" according to one state Republican. In fact, some state observers wonder if Moore himself was in favor of the measure because it provided additional money for the judiciary.
But being Moore's ally may not always be beneficial. According to one state GOPer, Moore has been known to "saw the limb out from someone," citing 2002 secretary of state candidate Dean Young, who ran as a "Moore candidate," but received no support from the man himself. Young went on to lose the primary runoff to fellow GOPer Dave Thomas.
"People who latch onto Roy Moore think it's a springboard, but its not," noted one Alabama insider told RothenbergPoliticalReport.com.
Further Down the Ballot?
Moore's greatest impact may be in the races for the state supreme court. Republican candidates are facing off in three different seats, with one candidate being from the "business wing" of the GOP and the other the "Moore wing."
Supreme Court Justice Jean Brown is being challenged by former Moore spokesman Tony Parker in the Republican primary. Brown is one of eight justices to vote to remove the monument from the lobby of the judicial building, but is the only incumbent seeking reelection this fall. (Moore was the ninth member of the court at that time.)
The other two open seat battles pit former appeals judge Pamela Baschab against Patti Smith, and Jefferson County Probate Judge Mike Bolin verses Montgomery District Judge Peggy Givhan.
Local Republicans believe that it is in these state races that Moore has the most potential for influence because there are no contribution limits. But a federal race, like the one against Bachus, would be much more difficult because of the stricter FEC regulations.
The only way Moore's popularity translates into influence is if there is funding, according to one state Republican. But on his own, Moore is not viewed as a good fundraiser. "He's never been well organized," explained one GOPer in the state.
What Does the Future Hold?
In his first year in office, Gov. Bob Riley (R) proposed a $1.2 billion tax increase. The voters of Alabama soundly rejected the measure, and the governor's popularity has plunged, especially among conservatives. He is assured of facing a Republican primary in 2006. Moore is viewed as a likely candidate for that race. Riley, the sitting governor, is not even running as a delegate to the Republican National Convention in New York.
Judging his past, Moore has been effective at drawing crowds to rallies and speaking eloquently for his causes. But his emotional appeal has yet to translate into political power. Without organization or a fundraising ability, Moore's influence is not likely to increase substantially.
"But if someone puts [Moore] on the air, it will stir something up," noted one state GOPer. "He's never going to go away." And that has to make even Republican officeholders and strategists at least a little nervous.
By Nathan L. Gonzales