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3 Key Factors Each Party Is Banking On for a Senate Majority

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 20, 2013 · 11:09 AM EDT

The Senate playing field is starting to solidify, and the fight for the majority looks like it will be decided in about a dozen states. But even though the fields of candidates are still taking shape in some of those contests, both Republicans and Democrats are banking on some macro-factors that…

A Final Comment on Twitter and Election Forecasting

by Stuart Rothenberg August 19, 2013 · 10:14 AM EDT

I shouldn’t be disappointed with MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown,” one of the few reasonable political shows not airing on Sunday morning. But the show did a segment with Indiana University sociologist Fabio Rojas, who recently wrote a Washington Post opinion piece on how Twitter can predict an election.

Twitter Can’t Yet Predict Elections

by Stuart Rothenberg August 15, 2013 · 10:13 AM EDT

The folks over at the Washington Post must have needed copy desperately for Monday’s opinion page if they were willing to publish a piece titled, “How Twitter can help predict an election.”

In the column, Indiana University Sociologist Fabio Rojas asserts: “Twitter discussions are an unusually…

No, Really: It’s Still Too Early to Judge Senate Races

by Stuart Rothenberg August 14, 2013 · 10:48 AM EDT

“The GOP needs to gain three or four seats to win control (depending on which party controls the White House), and already five Democratic-held Senate seats are no better than toss-ups. The Democratic outlook would improve markedly if the party could swipe a couple of Republican seats next year,…

Four Lessons from Amelia Bedelia’s Failed Run for Mayor

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 13, 2013 · 10:32 AM EDT

Amelia Bedelia could hardly hold down a housekeeping job, but that didn’t stop her from running for mayor.

Anybody with small kids or grandchildren is familiar with Amelia Bedelia — the well-intentioned nanny whose literal take on life gets her into plenty of trouble. But after her pun-filled…

Senate ‘In Play,’ But the Devil Is in the Details

by Stuart Rothenberg August 9, 2013 · 3:00 PM EDT

Two years ago, at the beginning of August 2011, Republicans looked poised to win back the United States Senate just four years after losing it. But by the time November of 2012 rolled around, it was clear that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s dream of becoming Majority Leader would have…

2014 Senate Overview (August 9, 2013) Alabama - Kansas

August 9, 2013 · 2:59 PM EDT

ALABAMA -- Jeff Sessions (R), elected 1996 (52%), 2002 (59%) and 2008 (63%).
The last Democratic Senate nominee to win over 40 percent of the vote in Alabama was Roger Bedford in 1996 (45.5 percent). Sessions’ June 30 FEC report showed him with nearly $3 million in the bank. Safe Republican.

2014 Senate Overview (August 9, 2013) Kentucky - New Mexico

August 9, 2013 · 2:58 PM EDT

KENTUCKY -- Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%).
Democrats are excited about Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes’ prospects against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. They note that two recent Democratic pollsters (PPP and Mark…

2014 Senate Overview (August 9, 2013) North Carolina - Wyoming

August 9, 2013 · 2:57 PM EDT

NORTH CAROLINA -- Kay Hagan (D), elected 2008 (53%).
Given the GOP’s recent victories in the state, Hagan had to expect a serious challenge. Mitt Romney carried the state last year, and Republican Pat McCrory won the governorship in November. In addition, the GOP now controls both houses of the…