A Good Year May Not Save These Three Vulnerable House Republicans Either

Nathan L. Gonzales October 23, 2014 · 1:27 PM EDT

In his recent column, “Weak GOP Candidates May Need More Than a Good Year,” Stu pointed out how a handful of under-performing Senate candidates could cost Republicans the majority. Similarly, though the House of Representatives is not in play, a trio of GOP incumbents could cost their party larger gains in the House.

Even as the House landscape continues to shift in Republicans’ favor, Reps. Lee Terry of Nebraska, Steve Southerland II of Florida and Michael G. Grimm of New York are perched atop the list of most vulnerable incumbents. And it’s not hard to see why.

Terry, Southerland and Grimm are all vulnerable because of self-inflicted wounds, and a great Republican year might not be enough to save them. Meanwhile, some of their colleagues, such as Reps. Rodney Davis of Illinois, David Valadao of California and Chris Gibson of New York, are facing much brighter re-election prospects — despite being early targets and representing more Democratic districts than Terry or Southerland.

Terry handed Democrats a gift during last year’s government shutdown, when asked if he would continue collecting his paycheck.

“Dang straight,” he said. “I’ve got a nice house and a kid in college, and I’ll tell you we cannot handle it. Giving our paycheck away when you still worked and…

Weak GOP Candidates May Need More Than a Good Year

Stuart Rothenberg October 23, 2014 · 9:24 AM EDT

Republicans have the wind at their backs this year. But not every GOP nominee is taking advantage of that dynamic. As usual, some candidates are under-performing, proving once again that candidates and the campaigns they choose to run actually matter.

That should come as no surprise to anyone…

South Dakota Senate Race Returning to Form

Stuart Rothenberg October 22, 2014 · 3:30 PM EDT

Republican attacks on Democrat Rick Weiland and Independent Larry Pressler appear to have worked, making it more likely that the GOP will pick up the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Tim Johnson, as long expected.

Republican Mike Rounds, a former two-term GOP governor, found himself in…

Not His Father’s Arkansas

Stuart Rothenberg October 20, 2014 · 10:27 AM EDT

I have been thinking for months about how politics has changed over the past decade, but those changes struck home in a very obvious way while I was reading a recent Washington Post article written by the very able Philip Rucker.

“Senator’s parents hit trail to preserve Ark. dynasty” was a…

Senate Outlook: Lots of Moving Pieces But Fundamentally Unchanged

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Stuart Rothenberg October 17, 2014 · 3:30 PM EDT

The arithmetic for Senate control in the midterms is more complicated and confused than ever, but it is also still very dangerous for Democrats.

Who would have thought that a little more than two weeks before the election Republican strategists would be trying to spending time and money to try…