‘Simple’ Doesn’t Equal ‘Easy’ in N.H. Senate Race

Stuart Rothenberg July 23, 2014 · 12:11 PM EDT

Having written about House and Senate races for the past 30 years, I’ve seen plenty of press releases, polling memos and campaign strategy emails. But rarely have I received anything as silly as a July 9 press release from New Hampshire Republican Senate hopeful Scott P. Brown’s campaign, which presented the challenger’s alleged “Path To Victory.”

First, let me note that Brown is virtually certain to be the Republican nominee against incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. If the Republican wave is large enough in the fall, or if Shaheen makes enough errors between now and Election Day, Brown could win. It isn’t impossible, just unlikely at this point. (The Rothenberg Political Report rates the contest as Democrat Favored.)

That said, the press release from Colin Reed, Brown’s campaign manager, screams to be picked apart.

“Scott Brown’s path to victory is simple: consolidate the Republican base and split the Independent vote,” begins Reed as if he is explaining to a small child that mittens go on the hands and shoes go on the feet.

In fact, the arithmetic may be clear, but the path is anything but easy to traverse.

This “simple” path to victory proved a bit harder than Reed suggests for the past five GOP nominees for governor, all of whom lost their races, and for…

GOP Can’t Catch a Break in Congressional Baseball Recruitment

Nathan L. Gonzales July 22, 2014 · 10:23 AM EDT

Phil Berger Jr.’s loss in last week's Republican runoff in North Carolina’s 6th District was about more than an establishment favorite getting knocked off by an anti-establishment challenger.

He could have been a key player for Republicans in future Roll Call Congressional Baseball Games.

‘Would You Rather?’ House Race Edition

Nathan L. Gonzales July 21, 2014 · 9:40 AM EDT

In the game “Would You Rather?” one is usually faced with a choice between two difficult and undesirable options.

“If you had a machete, would you rather amputate the feet of two friends or amputate one of your own feet?” asks the site YouRather.com. Or, “Would you rather spend a day with…

Fight for the House About 2016, not 2014

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Stuart Rothenberg July 18, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

With the 2014 midterm elections less than four months away, the fight for Congress is all about the Senate. On the other hand, the battle for the House of Representatives is about positioning for 2016 rather than about which party will control the chamber next year.

National poll numbers…

2014 House Overview (July 18, 2014) Alabama - Indiana

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July 18, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

Alabama (6 Republicans, 1 Democrat).
AL 6 (Open; Bachus, R). Former Alabama Policy Institute president Gary Palmer defeated state Rep. Paul DeMarco 64 percent to 36 percent. DeMarco finished first in the initial primary with 33 percent. Palmer will be a Member of Congress next year.

Alaska…